As the old saying goes, one man’s loss is another man’s gain. Or, to quote a less allegorical version, the misery of 75 countries is the joy of 120 other nations.
Alas, there’s no greater example of this popular adage than the present-day misfortune being suffered by the nationals of 75 countries whose immigrant visa cases are being suspended indefinitely by the US State Department.
A kind of misfortune that, if all the stars align, could translate into an immigrant visa bonanza for certain other countries.
Here’s how it works: Under US immigration law, unused family-based immigrant visas in a given fiscal year will “spill over” for distribution among the following year’s employment-based visa applicants, especially within the oversubscribed groups such as the EB-2 (exceptional ability or advanced degree workers) and EB-3 (skilled, professional, and unskilled workers) categories.
Since family-based applicants from such heavy-volume countries as Bangladesh, Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan and Russia, among others, will not be able to secure family immigrant visas for fiscal year 2026 (which ends on 30 September), it is projected that there will be roughly 50,000 surplus immigrant visas that can be allocated next year for use by employment-based visa applicants from other countries.
Notably, within the heavily oversubscribed categories, applicants from China and India suffer the most. Indeed, while the EB-2 category has a worldwide backlog of less than two years (with a priority date of 1 April 2024), EB-2 applicants from China and India currently endure waiting times of about five years and 12 ½ years, respectively. For the EB-3 skilled/professional workers’ category, the general backlog is about 2 ½ years (1 June 2023), but for China and India, the backlog is about 4 ½ years and 13 years, respectively.
The EB-3 unskilled workers’ category, on the other hand, has an average waiting time of about 5 and a half years (1 September 2021), with China and India’s backlogs running to almost seven years and 15 years, respectively.
Thus, assuming that the immigrant visa pause will last through the end of September, the projected 50,000 unused visas will be distributed next year on a prorated basis among the EB-2 and EB-3 applicants from countries with such heavy backlogs as India and China.
As for the Philippines, which has a lower work-based migration rate than India and China, it remains to be seen whether this development will have any significant impact on the availability of future visas for the EB-2 and EB-3 categories. However, if the robust historical progression during the Covid-19 era is any indication, accelerated visa issuance to Filipino EB-3 applicants such as nurses, therapists, and teachers may come into play as well.
Incidentally, since there is a maximum annual limit of 10,000 visas for the unskilled workers’ category, any forward movement within this sub-group will be minimal, if at all. Yet, even a few hundred additional visas per year may go a long way toward reducing the substantial backlog in this category.
As a cautionary note, the accuracy of the above projections will depend mightily on the confluence of a number of factors, foremost among which is the continuation of the 75-nation immigrant visa pause through the end of September, at least.
Any minor deviation and the bonanza projections will fail.