The recent action taken by US President Donald Trump against Venezuela, specifically targeting President Nicolás Maduro has set a troubling precedent.
It is stirring US allies and adversaries alike to figure out how to deal with a superpower seemingly ready to employ force in enforcing a might-makes-right foreign policy.
Claiming justification for his aggressive maneuver on Maduro’s running a “narco-terrorist organization,” among other reasons, Trump blurred the lines between foreign policy, economic interests and military intervention when he ordered the raid on Caracas and the extrication of Maduro and his wife.
Leaders of other key nations are likely observing the situation with great interest — and concern.
Xi Jinping in China might interpret the unilateral action by the US as a validation of aggressive tactics that would justify similar maneuvers in Asia.
China has consistently maintained its claims on Taiwan and the West Philippine Sea, and with the precedent of the US action in Venezuela, Beijing may be emboldened to assert its territorial demands more forcefully during a perceived window of opportunity when American attention is diverted elsewhere.
Russia’s Vladimir Putin would also view the action in Venezuela as indicative of US vulnerabilities and overreach.
As the Kremlin braces for more scrutiny over its activities in Ukraine and alongside its own ambitions, the precedent of the US intervention could encourage Russia to deepen its involvement in regions where it has strategic interests, especially if it senses the global focus is divided.
For his part, Lai Ching-te in Taiwan would likely interpret the situation with caution, what with China long wanting to pounce on the island state.
Maduro’s fall comes with a silver lining for China, points out Brookings Institution scholar Ryan Hass who was China director in the National Security Council during the Obama administration.
Hass said having more US military assets devoted to Latin America rather than Asia would be beneficial to China, particularly in terms of legitimizing any future action that would violate international law, including against Taiwan.
The dangerous precedent set by the US could embolden Beijing to intensify its activities in the contested waters of the South China Sea. With the United States preoccupied with its own geopolitical challenges, the risk of further Chinese incursions becomes increasingly likely.
China’s approach has included the construction of artificial islands and military installations in the portions of the SCS belonging to the Philippines. With the knowledge that the global focus may shift due to US entanglements elsewhere, China may see an opportunity to solidify its claims and strengthen its regional influence, thereby undermining the sovereignty of smaller nations, including the Philippines.
Given these dynamics, what will prevent China from fully occupying the contested areas in the West Philippine Sea?
It is at this particular juncture that the Philippines must engage even more with its ASEAN neighbors and trusted global powers like Japan, Australia and — the US? The Philippine government must secure a concrete reaffirmation of US support seeing how the country was omitted from the new US National Security Strategy released by the Trump administration last year.
Analysts noted this omission, seeing it as potentially indicating a more transactional approach and raising questions about the Philippines’ reliance on the US for its future defense.
Meanwhile, the US military incursion into a sovereign state and the capture of Maduro were condemned at a UN Security Council meeting for what even US allies called a violation of international law.
Trump’s hit on Venezuela was described as reminiscent of a bygone era of American interference in Latin America and an undermining by the US of international peace and security.
Venezuelan Ambassador to the UN Samuel Moncada said the US incursion in Caracas opened the door to other countries taking similar action.
“If the kidnapping of a head of state and the bombing are tolerated, the message sent to the world is a devastating one, that is, mainly that law is optional and force the true arbiter of international order,” he said.
Does the US government even care? Even as the UN Security Council denounced his move against Venezuela, Trump was ramping up his rhetoric against other countries.
On Sunday, he stressed again that the US needs Greenland.
“It’s so strategic now. Russian and Chinese ships are all over the place. The US needs Greenland from the standpoint of national security and Denmark is not going to be able to do it,” he said.
On Saturday, he was asked by reporters on board Air Force One if an operation against Colombia was likewise possible. Trump responded, “Sounds good to me,” even as he also asserted that Cuba is “ready to fall,” and “something has to be done about Mexico.”
Carlos Perez Ricard, a political analyst at Mexico’s Center for Economic Research and Teaching, said he would not rule out a US military intervention in Mexico even if the possibility is slim.
“Currently, the US is not functioning under rational logic. At this moment, all possibilities are open, including those unimaginable a year ago,” he said.