The Philippine aviation sector remains the central pillar linking growth drivers that global investment institution Maybank identified: a robust domestic economy, airline expansion, record passenger volumes, and a recovering tourism industry.
Maybank projected gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.6 percent to 5.8 percent in 2025 to 2026. Cebu Pacific (CEB) leads airline expansion with a 152-aircraft order book, supported by an estimated 13 percent growth in 2025 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and rent or restructuring costs.
Passenger volumes hit a record 28.5 million, 16 percent higher year on year, while tourism’s GDP share is expected to surpass 2024’s 8.9 percent.
Capital is being invested in NAIA’s rehabilitation, the New Manila International Airport (NMIA) in Bulacan, and regional hubs, alongside 10 public-private partnership (PPP) projects worth P181 billion, or 7.4 percent of the total program cost.
Supporting measures include the P7.5-billion Aviation Transport Infrastructure Program, 15 bundled airport upgrades worth P8 billion under the 2025 budget law, a value-added tax (VAT) refund scheme, and e-visas for key markets such as China and India.
“We maintain a positive view on tourism, projecting value creation across aviation (CEB and MAC), property, and consumer sectors over the next two to five years,” the Maybank report said.
A robust economy is also expected to create new travelers. With GDP projected at 5.6 percent to 5.8 percent in 2025 to 2026, the Philippines is set to become ASEAN’s second-best performer.
Such growth supports a rapidly expanding middle class, which now accounts for 40 percent of the population and is likely to enjoy higher disposable incomes.
Travel spending already reached P986 billion, or 32 percent of total domestic consumption, with remittances from overseas directly fueling demand.
The information technology-business process management (IT-BPM) sector further strengthens middle-class incomes, with revenues projected at $40 billion to $42 billion by 2025 to 2026 from $38 billion in 2024, and headcount rising to 1.9 million to 1.97 million from 1.82 million in 2024.
These fundamentals suggest that air travel growth is structural, driven by demographic and economic shifts rather than speculative trends, according to Maybank.
Decades of constrained growth from inadequate airport infrastructure are finally being addressed through the P170.6-billion NAIA rehabilitation, the P740-billion NMIA project, and the modernization of Cebu, Clark, Iloilo, and Davao airports to unlock regional gateways.