India’s diplomacy is being tested on multiple fronts as its leaders juggle high-stakes conversations with France, Russia, and the United States, all while facing the threat of punishing tariffs from Washington. The evolving situation shows how domestic economic choices are colliding with shifting global power dynamics.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday held a call with French President Emmanuel Macron, a conversation that underscored New Delhi’s growing reliance on strategic partnerships in Europe. “Had a very good conversation with my friend President Macron,” Modi said in a post on social media, adding that they had agreed to strengthen their “strategic partnership.”
A government statement said the leaders discussed cooperation in trade, defense, and energy, while also coordinating views on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Macron reportedly briefed Modi on a summit in Washington between US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and several European leaders, which came just days after Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Modi noted that the two had exchanged views on “efforts for the peaceful resolution” of these conflicts.
The timing of the call was telling. As Modi spoke with Macron, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar was in Moscow, meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and later with Putin. Jaishankar emphasized the goal of expanding bilateral trade, particularly through greater Indian exports to Russia. He made no direct mention of Russian oil purchases, but the omission was striking given how central the issue has become.
India’s import of discounted Russian crude has saved billions of dollars, helping stabilize domestic fuel prices. Yet those same imports are now drawing sharper scrutiny. Trump, who has unleashed a wave of tariff hikes against trading partners, has warned that unless India stops buying Russian oil, its exports to the US could face tariffs of 50 percent, double the current rate. For New Delhi, the challenge is whether to bend under US economic pressure or continue navigating a middle path between Moscow and Western capitals.
The strain extends far beyond India. Global markets have already been unsettled by Trump’s tariff strategy, which in recent days produced both fresh anxiety and rare clarity. On Thursday, European stocks received a short-lived boost after the US and European Union reached a long-awaited deal that capped tariffs on EU goods at 15 percent.
“This is the most favorable trade deal the US has extended to any partner,” EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic said, noting the relief after months of uncertainty. Business surveys also showed European activity rebounding to a 15-month high, a welcome sign for investors. Still, the optimism was tempered by broader concerns about how Trump’s tariffs might ripple into monetary policy.
All eyes are now on US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who is set to deliver his final speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium before his term ends in 2026. “Although the effect of Trump’s tariffs on monetary policy will be the undercurrent theme, investors will be looking specifically for clues as to the Fed’s inclination to cut interest rates,” said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown.
Markets remain jittery. In New York, major indices slipped on Thursday, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each down 0.2 percent. The losses followed a sell-off in tech stocks that began earlier this month, though some stability returned as shares of Nvidia leveled off ahead of its earnings report. Asian markets offered mixed signals, with gains in Seoul, Shanghai, and Sydney offset by declines in Tokyo and Hong Kong.
Meanwhile, oil prices continued to climb, buoyed by reports of shrinking US crude reserves. Brent crude rose to $67.24 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate reached $62.70, further complicating the global picture for energy-dependent economies like India.
The backdrop of Trump’s summitry, Modi’s balancing act, and Macron’s outreach reflects the uncertainty of today’s global order. India finds itself both courted and pressured, seeking to preserve its autonomy while engaging partners on all sides of the world’s divides.
For now, Modi’s message is one of resilience, signaling that New Delhi will continue expanding ties where possible while promoting dialogue in regions torn by conflict. Whether that approach can withstand the combined weight of tariffs, oil politics, and great power rivalries remains the question shaping the months ahead.