Manila Electric Co. (Meralco), the country’s largest power distributor, is cutting its full-year energy sales growth forecast to just 1 to 2 percent from an earlier projection of 4 to 4.5 percent, following weaker demand in the second quarter.
“I think we’re revising our forecast given the current conditions, and I think we’re revising the forecast from the previous 4 to 4.5 to around 1 to 2 percent by the end of year,” Meralco senior vice president and chief revenue officer Ferdinand O. Geluz said in a recent interview with reporters.
Modest gains offset by cooler weather
“So modest gains from Q1 were offset by cooler and wetter heat,” Geluz said, noting that the downgrade in the country’s gross domestic product growth outlook — from 6 percent to 5.5 percent in April — also weighed on power consumption.
He attributed the muted growth to new connections that added demand but were offset by a decline in per capita consumption, which now averages 220 kilowatt-hours per customer per month.
“A slump in expansion in retail and restaurants was countered by the impact of office vacancies due to POGO (ban),” Geluz added.
Tough times
Meralco Chairman and CEO Manuel V. Pangilinan also acknowledged the broader economic slowdown and its impact on demand. “Typically, the growth in the DU (distribution utility) is close to the real growth of GDP, but these are challenging times. These are tough times,” he said.
During the first half of the year, consolidated distribution utility energy sales of Meralco and Clark Electric Distribution Corp. inched up by less than 1 percent to 27,091 gigawatt-hour in the first half of 2025 from 26,954 GWh a year ago.
The commercial segment during the period accounted for the largest share at 37 percent, with sales slightly rising to 10,102 GWh from 10,068 GWh.
Residential sales, comprising 36 percent of total volume, rose to 9,779 GWh from 9,715 GWh, driven by new customer connections despite flat organic demand, especially compared to the high consumption during El Niño in May and June 2024.