As of this writing, Tuesday, 24 June 2025, the Strait of Hormuz has not been closed, but Iran’s security council is seriously considering it. It will depend on developments in the short term. The more cornered Iran is, the greater the chance it will close Hormuz, as a “last resort.”
Some 20 million barrels of oil pass through the narrow Hormuz per day. If Iran closes Hormuz, which is part of its territory, it will deny the world a vital oil supply, especially with winter coming. As of this writing, however, oil prices have not yet been affected.
Iran’s capability to close Hormuz will be impaired by the fact that US-Israel virtually control all of Iranian airspace at will. Iran’s warplanes are obsolete, dating back to the days of the revolution, while US-Israel have the latest F-35s and F18s. These warplanes are deadlier than drones and missiles in taking out precision targets.
A decade ago, US admirals said they would not be caught with their carriers like sitting ducks near the chokepoint of Hormuz. But today, the situation is different. Iran’s underground missile silos were reportedly taken out in three sites by B2 stealth bombers carrying bunker-busting bombs designed for deep underground penetration before they explode.
Maybe the coast is clear for carriers to lurk in areas where they can keep Hormuz clear for oil tankers to pass through. But it is a risky affair, almost impossible, if the US has no intel on the actual situation. It may take only one or two oil tankers sunk at Hormuz to clog it up.
Meanwhile, Iran has breached Israel’s sophisticated three-layer air defense system. Israel is no longer invincible, as Iran shifts from drones to ballistic missiles.
Iran has relatively inferior air defense systems, but it has breached Israel’s three-layer system: layer 1, the Iron Dome, the lowest defense system; layer 2, the David Sling, the medium range layer; and layer 3, the Arrow, the largest system.
The Arrow missile costs $3.5 million each and the David Sling $1 million each. The Iranians have shifted from inferior drones to precision and more powerful ballistic missiles costing a mere $100,000 each. Israel reportedly spends about $725 million a day on this war (Source: Firstpost), mainly to keep its defense systems working.
The economics of asymmetric warfare favors Iran. Even if the US finances Israel’s expensive defense systems, Iran still has about 3,000 ballistic missiles. And it takes time for Israel to make defense missiles. The time factor is Israel’s Achilles’ heel. In truth, Israel’s air defense system is slowly being eroded by Iranian ballistic missile barrages. Who will run out first — Iran with its cheap and plentiful ballistic missiles or Israel whose stocks of three-layer defense missiles are dwindling?
The problem is if many of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed. We do not know if Iran would be capable of continuing its missile barrages. Missiles are useless without launchers. We also do not know if Israel is running out of defense missiles. Perhaps the war will fizzle out by itself if the US just stops meddling. (Sources: Firstpost, 20 June 2025; Newsweek, Al Jazeera)