As the dust of the midterm election clears and the victors are known, attention turns to the primary battle in 2028, which will pit the strong political forces of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Vice President Sara Duterte.
Most political pundits agree the recent polls were almost even between the contending factions, with the Duterte camp having a slight edge. This will be crucial for the next three years, which marks the campaign for Mr. Marcos’ successor.
The New York-based think tank Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) said former President Rodrigo Duterte will remain a pivotal presence despite his battle for his freedom at the International Criminal Court (ICC).
It noted that Duterte, while held in The Hague, was elected mayor of Davao City. “His supporters believe that Marcos Jr. allowed Interpol to bring him to The Hague for trial, which is probably correct.”
“This victory in Davao is important, however, because it serves as a reminder that the Dutertes are still a political force to be reckoned with in the Philippines,” CRF said.
The group said that whoever ultimately runs in the 2028 presidential election — and their choice of external partner — could shape the region’s future and affect related strategic issues.
Meanwhile, the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said the Senate battle “delivered a weaker showing for the administration than predicted by polling.”
It indicated, however, that the outcome showed voters were not completely disenchanted with the administration.
“But that fell short of expectations after polling suggested that the administration could win up to eight seats. Instead, Filipinos delivered larger-than-expected margins for both the Duterte and newly revived liberal camps,” CSIS said.
The report cited an attempt to give a semblance of unity without the Dutertes.
“By endorsing a broad group of politically disparate veteran politicians and media personalities, Marcos attempted to paint a picture of continuity, integrity, and competence through his Senate slate,” CSIS added.
It conceded that based on the new Senate makeup after the polls, convicting Vice President Sara Duterte in her impeachment trial would now be less likely.
“The Marcos-aligned supermajority in the House impeached Vice President Sara Duterte earlier this year. She will face trial in the Senate by 30 July and seeing her removed from office and banned from running for president in 2028 would clearly be in the Marcos camp’s interest. The muddled results from the midterms make that less likely,” according to the report.
President Marcos did not push for the impeachment of Vice President Duterte, but his House allies were insistent about the need for accountability.
The impeachment complaint cited several grounds, including the misuse of public funds, unexplained wealth, making murder threats, and betrayal of public trust.
Senator-elect Rodante Marcoleta believes the basis for VP Duterte’s impeachment is wrong and the process should be discussed to determine whether to proceed.
Another crucial factor in the runup to the 2028 presidential polls would be the voting population’s makeup.
Data from the Commission on Elections showed that millennials and Gen Z, the youth up to 40 years old, made up over 60 percent of registered voters in the 2025 midterms.
CSIS noted that this led to a noticeable uptick in political discussions on social media platforms.
“Millennial and Gen Z voters accounted for 71 percent of those online discussions. As in previous national elections, disinformation campaigns played a significant role in swaying the public,” it said.
The demographic shift toward younger voters will reshape the 2028 election and future political contests. Theatrics and antics are outdated, while stances on national issues will drive voter decisions.