A National Security Council (NSC) official has warned that any attempt by China to transform Scarborough Shoal into an island would cross a “red line” for the Philippines and could trigger instability in the region.
In a virtual forum organized by the Stratbase ADR Institute on Tuesday, NSC Assistant Director General Jonathan Malaya said Philippine authorities have observed increased activity from Chinese coast guard and suspected militia vessels around the shoal in recent years, sparking concerns about Beijing’s intentions in the disputed area.
Malaya emphasized that the Philippines has a clear policy of not yielding any part of its territory in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) to China.
“What keeps us awake at night is the possibility that China might turn the shoal into an artificial island or militarize it. That would be very troubling,” he said. “The legal status of Scarborough Shoal as part of Philippine territory is clear. That is a red line.”
He also expressed hope that China would continue to honor the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, which urges parties to avoid escalating tensions and to refrain from occupying new maritime features. “We expect China to adhere to that,” Malaya said. “It’s our hope that they will not go that far. That would be a red line for the Philippines.”
Atty. Jay Batongbacal, director of the University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs, also weighed in, stating that China’s claims over Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal) have no legal basis.
He pointed out that the 2016 Arbitral Award confirmed that China’s “historic rights” are invalid under international law and affirmed the Philippines’ sovereign rights in the West Philippine Sea.
“China is trying to assert control over the area, but legally, this has no weight,” Batongbacal said. “Nothing China does will change the shoal’s legal status as part of Philippine territory, as defined by the circumstances in 2012, when the dispute escalated.”
Scarborough Shoal, located 124 nautical miles off the Philippines’ Zambales province, has been a point of contention for years. Despite being within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, China has controlled it since a standoff in 2012, with Chinese vessels blocking Filipino ships and fishing boats from entering the area.
Batongbacal stressed that the Philippines has consistently exercised jurisdiction over the shoal, and that legal clarity remains on its status. “Our inability to stop China doesn’t change the fact that the law is on our side. We hope that, in time, the law will prevail,” he added.