The aim of decarbonizing, or producing electricity without the use of fossil fuels, is feasible for the power sector by 2050.
By that year, both coal and gas plants will be history. The country will then have fully embraced renewables, delivering beneficial outcomes for the country.
An analysis paper, “A 1.5C future is possible: Getting fossil fuels out of the Philippine power sector,” undertaken by Berlin-based global science policy institute Climate Analytics and commissioned by the Center for Energy, Ecology and Development (CEED), a sustainability think-tank, painted the country’s green future.
The output of the review complements Earth Day’s 2025 theme “Our power, our planet,” calling for everyone to unite around renewable energy so we can triple clean electricity by 2030.
To produce the report, Climate Analytics undertook what could be the most detailed 1.5˚C scenario modeling of the power sector to date.
The report estimated the country’s renewable energy potential, considering affordability, diverse eligibility constraints on land, and technical feasibility in terms of grid planning.
“We find that with the right international funding and policies in place, the Philippines could transition its power sector to near-100 percent renewable energy without compromising on the costs of electricity, reducing its reliance on expensive imports of both coal and gas, and creating up to a million jobs by 2050,” Climate Analytics analyst and project lead for the report, Dr Nandini Das, said.
The report’s findings contrast with the latest available updates on the new Philippine Energy Plan (PEP), which supports the need for additional coal and gas capacities and the integration of new technologies like nuclear and carbon capture, utilization, and storage.
“As a country that is among the most vulnerable in the world to the climate crisis, the 1.5˚C goal is a survival threshold that is simply not optional for the Philippines. This report tells us that there really is no reason for our government or energy players alike to argue that we need massive new capacities of gas and other fossil fuels in advancing our energy transition when climate-aligned pathway of tapping our abundant renewable energy potential are also the ones that make the most economic sense,” Kenneth Quesada, data research analyst of CEED, said.
“We hope that the government can listen to science and reflect the findings of this report on the feasibility of a 1.5˚C power sector pathway in a country like the Philippines to the global stage — thus calling for ambitious global climate targets, and demanding the delivery of reparation and finance that will hasten our 100 percent renewable energy transition,” Avril de Torres, deputy executive director of CEED, said.
Coal-fired power could be phased out of the power sector by 2035, and gas almost entirely phased out by 2040;
An additional 152 terrawatt-hour (TWh) of renewable generation would be required by 2050; and
The Philippines has an abundance of renewable energy potential, estimated at around 1,200 GW. The analysis focused on solar rooftop, open-field solar, and onshore and offshore wind energy, excluding areas of high biodiversity and protected areas.
The report indicated that the power sector can attain a 1.5˚C compatible emissions pathway without resorting to false solutions like retrofitting the coal fleet for green hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, or building new nuclear power capacity.
Shifting towards a 1.5 °C pathway would reduce electricity costs in the Philippines. Planning for infrastructure development with international financing is crucial.
A 1.5 °C emissions pathway will enable the Philippines greater self-sufficiency by reducing dependency on imported energy.
Phasing out coal and replacing it with renewables in the Philippines will generate significantly more jobs than business-as-usual annually.
Shifting towards a 1.5 °C pathway would reduce electricity costs in the Philippines; planning for infrastructure development with international financing is crucial.
Phasing out coal plants is an economic necessity, and renewables suitable for the Philippines, like open-field and rooftop solar, are highly cost-competitive.