As the 2024 United States Presidential Election approaches, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent history. Here’s a quick guide for Filipinos on what to expect and how election results are processed.
Election Day is on Tuesday, 5 November. Polling station opening times vary by state, generally starting between 7:00 AM and 9:00 AM local time. Due to multiple time zones across the US, poll closing times range from 7:00 PM to 11:00 PM Eastern Time.
Results typically begin to come in soon after the first polls close. In states like Georgia, early votes are counted and reported on election night, with most results available by midnight. However, some states, such as Nevada, may take several days to finalize their counts.
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Unlike in the Philippines, where every vote is directly counted, the US uses the Electoral College system. Each state is allocated a number of electoral votes based on its congressional representation, totaling 538 electors across the country. A candidate needs a majority of at least 270 electoral votes to win.
The Cook Political Report (CPR) assesses the competitiveness of states that make up the total 538 electoral votes. According to the CPR, most US states are either solidly likely to vote either Democrat (California, Colorado, New York, and more) or Republican (Indiana, Missouri, Tennessee, etc.). Additionally, a small number of states "lean" in one direction. This means the CPR does not consider the races here competitive but have the potential to become engaged. For example, Minnesota is likely to count for Kamala Harris, while Texas, boasting a whopping 40 electoral votes, is a probably win for Trump.
Finally, seven states are considered "toss up" or "battleground" states, where either party has a shot at winning. These states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The New York Times' latest report says Trump has a very slim lead in five out of these seven states, while Harris is very slightly ahead in Michigan and Wisonsin.
If both candidates receive 269 electoral votes, the decision moves to a "contingent election," where each state’s representatives in the House vote to determine the president. In the case of a vice-presidential tie, the Senate votes to decide the winner.
Concerns about election security have resurfaced this year, particularly among Trump’s supporters, echoing his claims from the 2020 election. An article from The Washington Post outlined claims Trump has raised, such as allegations of noncitizens voting illegally. However, federal law strictly prohibits noncitizens from voting in federal elections, with penalties including fines, prison, or deportation.
Trump has also raised concerns about media bias, “ballot harvesting” (the collection of absentee ballots by third parties), and potential tampering with voting machines. However, an election fraud commission found no credible evidence of widespread voter fraud or organized efforts by Democrats to alter the outcome. While election-related claims have been a focal point in Trump's speeches, fact-checking efforts and independent investigations in the past have found these allegations to be unsupported.