If the world could vote, whom would it choose to be the next president of the United States? Based on a survey conducted across 44 countries in October by Swedish research firm Novus and Gallup International, the majority of respondents preferred Kamala Harris (54 percent) over Donald Trump (26 percent).
But those votes won’t count, and so the world continues to wait with bated breath as election day in the US draws near. Because America is still the world’s preeminent superpower, it is only natural that the result of the 5 November electoral race would have a global impact, including in Southeast Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific region.
Not a few experts whose eyes are glued to the US presidential race believe that where the region is concerned, a return to the White House by Donald Trump could see a return to his America First policies, likely bringing more protectionist trade measures and a shift in security dynamics to the region.
On the other hand, Mely Caballero-Anthony, head of the Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam Schol of International Studies, says a Kamala Harris victory could reaffirm US commitment to multilateralism with an emphasis on trade, developing the economies of its allies, as well as climate change cooperation.
“Thus,” she underscored, “the US presidential election carries profound implications for the region’s geopolitical and economic landscape, particularly in terms of trade, security partnerships and diplomatic ties with Washington.”
She pointed out that “in an increasingly uncertain global environment, the US engagement with Indo-Pacific remains crucial. As vice president, Kamala Harris had been active in ASEAN and East Asian Summits, strengthening US commitments to peace and stability in the region.”
As such, the US, under Harris, is expected to continue participating in ASEAN-led activities such as the ASEAN Summits and other ASEAN regional fora, the ASEAN Defense Ministerial Meetings Plus, and multilateral groups like the QUAD (the informal security dialogue among the US, Australia, India and Japan), and AUKUS (the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the US), solidifying the role of the US as a reliable partner in the region.
Particularly for allies like the Philippines, active involvement by America in the region would reinforce ties, particularly welcome amid the unabated tension between the Philippines and China.
A second US presidency for Trump, meanwhile, is viewed as bringing much uncertainty. As an isolationist, Trump could very well reduce security support and military presence, raising concerns across the region.
Trump’s reentry into the White House could also see an intensification in US-China rivalry, driving Southeast Asian nations, which would rather stay neutral, to confront tougher choices that could undermine ASEAN autonomy and centrality.
“The economic stakes are equally high,” stresses Caballero-Anthony. “A Trump-led shift to even greater protectionist trade policies would severely impact Indo-Pacific economies.”
In contrast, a Harris administration is seen to pursue deeper multilateral engagements like advancing the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) to counterbalance China’s influence in the region.
Trump has said he will yank the US out of IPEF, as he did from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. If that happens, there could very well be widespread destabilization of regional economies and an erosion of trust in the US as an economic partner.
But would Trump even care? “I am president of the United States, I’m not president of the globe,” he had declared in a Make America Great Again rally in Charleston, South Carolina in February 2020.
Trump is hostile to free trade, promising tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on imports to the US and even higher tariffs on Chinese imports. During the debate with Harris, he said, “Countries are going to finally, after 75 years, pay us back for all that we’ve done for the world.”
New US tariffs and the retaliation these would provoke would be damaging for Asian trading nations.
Certainly, the way the next US president manages America’s relations with China is a serious matter to the Indo-Pacific.
Many are concerned about Trump’s becoming overly combative with China. And Trump being Trump, there is a chance he could even be drawn to the idea of a grand bargain with China, trading away the security interests of the US and its allies in Indo-Pacific for trade concessions.
This, after all, is the man who had hosted Xi Jinping at Mar-a-lago, serving the Chinese president with “the most beautiful piece of chocolate cake.”
And then there is that one extremely dreaded possibility that the US, under Trump, would scale back or, worst, pull out of its security commitments in this part of the world, leaving China, in all its imperious godlessness and disdain for international law, to rise and reign supreme, unrestrained and unrivaled, over the region.