The Center for Strategic and Intelligence Studies (CSIS), a US think tank, reports that it is nearly impossible for Israel to take out the underground Iranian nuclear reactors.
There are two hurdles: 1) reaching the target area; 2) hitting completely, not just partially, the bunker buster-proof reactors 100 meters underground.
The US-Israel tandem is hesitant to do this in spite of their success in 2010 (virus attack) and 2021 (Natanz reactor destroyed) because there are too many game-changing events.
Israeli jets need to pass through the airspace of Syria, Iraq, and Jordan, which are dangerous routes. Jordan says it will not permit it. The jets could also pass through Turkey, but Turkey fears getting involved in an escalating major conflict.
Iran has 24 types of air defense systems. Let us take the first three. The first and most lethal is the Iranian-made Bavar 373 using the Sayad 2, 3, and 4 missiles. Made locally, US-Israel has little intelligence data on its capabilities. Its most dangerous aspect is it can hit the best and latest US-Israel stealth aircraft.
The second and third systems, which can neutralize Mach 1 or 2 hypersonic missiles, are the Russian S300, range 200 km, and the S400, detection range 600 km and hitting range 400 km. The deadly S400 can handle a swarm of 300 incoming missiles simultaneously. It can shoot down jets, drones, ballistic and cruise missiles. It is not known if Iran has the S400, but The New York Times reported on an unspecified shipment, which included the versatile (SU35, famous for downing a US F16.
The CSIS claims that the only way to penetrate the Iran-Russian air defense systems is to take the nuclear option). If cornered, Netanyahu may not hesitate to take this option, ushering in WW3. He may be willing to risk a full-blown nuclear war to save Israel. This is the ultimate escalation factor everyone fears.
UK’s Financial Times, interviewing nuclear experts, confirmed the CSIS claim, reporting that taking out the underground reactors is “impossible,” citing their location in mountainous areas.
Israeli jets, even if they get past the defense shields, will have to dive to an altitude of 100 meters. Partial hits are useless. The entire reactors have to be destroyed, which the experts say needs100 fighter jets, which is a third of the entire Israeli air force.
The US GBU-57 bunker-busting bomb is out of the question, weighing 14 tons and being six meters long. Only the US B2 Spirit, which Israel does not have, but is easy prey for the Iranians, can carry that load. Even if they had it, they cannot risk the geopolitical embarrassment of a jet downed in Iranian space, not to mention the heightened escalation, and the entry of Russia and China into the war.
The greatest weaknesses of Iran’s defense of its underground nuclear reactors are: 1) a virus attack, like in 2010; 2) dozens of deep penetration spies everywhere high and low.
Spy data helped neutralize the Natanz reactor by compromising the electrical system of the underground reactors. No electricity meant no ventilation, which meant an evacuation if there were no portable gas masks, which could last only for a short while. But new replacements came quickly, especially the IR9 centrifuges. Iran was ready to use its reactors in spite of the Natanz tragedy. The destruction of the Natanz reactor was useless, because Iran had new more sophisticated replacements.
In the past, two Iranians spying for US-Israel were arrested. One was executed, the other escaped to the US. One was responsible for planting the bomb that took out the Natanz reactor.
A future war is unpredictable because there are many more sophisticated secret weapons on both sides, not to mention more deep penetration spies. But the concern of everyone is how near or far we are from a nuclear holocaust, given Netanyahu’s mindset and his ability to wage war and refuse peace, given the ability of Israel and Iran and their proxies, US-NATO and Russia-China, to wage war.
In the end, the hand of God, the Deus ex Machina factor, will form the destiny of humankind. For us fence sitters, our only recourse is prayer and goodwill to others. (Sources: Daily News AI, Vantage).