The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration forecasted about 40 provinces to experience meteorological drought conditions by the end of April this year, brought on by the prevailing El Niño.
PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Analiza Solis said that by the end of April, 13 provinces might experience dry conditions, 25 provinces might experience dry spells, and 40 provinces might experience drought conditions.
Dry conditions are forecast to prevail mostly in Mindanao areas, while dry spells and droughts are expected to creep all over different parts of the country.
The list of provinces foreseen to be affected is yet to be released.
Moreover, Solis said that agriculture damage and losses will be expected to increase in the following months.
“Sa nakikita nga natin, meron nga tayong nakikitang around 40 provinces na mas magpapatuloy yung reduction dun sa tubig ulan; therefore, mas madadagdagan yung mga areas na maapektuhan,” she told the DAILY TRIBUNE.
(From what we can see, we can see that there are around 40 provinces where the reduction in rainwater will continue; therefore, the areas that will be affected will increase more.)
“Wag lang sana maapektuhan yung ating may mga pananim, but then since ngayon ay patapos yung dry season cropping, yung preparation naman ng ating magsasaka is yung wet season cropping, which is also critical lalong-lalo na kung kakailanganin nila ng maraming tubig or yung water requirement ng kanilang pananim,” she continued.
(We hope that those who have crops will not be affected, but since now the dry season cropping is coming to an end, the preparation of our farmers is the wet season cropping, which is also critical, especially if they need a lot of water or the water requirement of their crop.)
With this, the PAGASA official urged the public to take simple actions that could help mitigate the potential adverse effects of the El Niño phenomenon, such as reducing water consumption in every household.
“For now, ang kailangan natin ay tulong ng ating mga kababayan lalong-lalo na rito sa Metro Manila. Altough okay pa yung ating Angat Dam ngayon.. nasu-supplyan pa yung mga kailangan for multipurpose operation, so kailangan pa rin natin magtipid ng tubig at least lalo dito sa Metro Manila.”
(For now, what we need is the help of our countrymen, especially here in Metro Manila. Although our Angat Dam is still okay now, it is still supplying what is needed for multipurpose operation, so we still need to conserve water at least here in Metro Manila.)
Moreover, Solis said that during the onslaught of El Niño, the downward trend in the water level of Luzon dams is normal.
“Unti-unti nakaka-recover ang ating mga dams lalo na ang Angat Dam by July, yung pagdating ng habagat season, yun yung medyo kritikal natin, by the end of May at saka June, hopefully magiging sapat yung tubig na darating sa atin during the onset of rainy season.”
“Kung hindi darating yung mga aasahan nating ulan sa pagdating ng tag-ulan, doon medyo magiging kritikal ang kalagayan,” she added.
(Our dams are slowly recovering, especially the Angat Dam by July, the arrival of the monsoon season; that's what is critical for us, by the end of May and then June, hopefully, the water that will come to us during the onset of the rainy season will be enough. If the rains we expect do not come when the rainy season arrives, then the situation will be quite critical.)
Solis said that the rainy season is expected to begin in the second half of May and the first half of June.
“Although nakikita natin na may mga areas na magiging back to normal na yung pag-ulan pagbalik ng onset ng rainy season, but still in terms of probability, malaki pa rin yung tsansa na below normal pa rin yung mga ulan natin. That is why, napakataas ng uncertatinty nung mga pini-predict natin ngayon, so we need to keep an update and monitor,” she said.
(Although we can see that there are areas where the rains will be back to normal after the onset of the rainy season, but still, in terms of probability, there is still a big chance that our rains will still be below normal. That is why, the uncertainty of what we predict now is very high, so we need to keep an update and monitor.)