WASHINGTON (AFP) — The US midterm elections have been seen for much of the year as a likely landslide victory for Republicans, with President Joe Biden's approval ratings slumping amid spiraling inflation, record migrant arrivals and rising violent crime.
The Democrats narrowed the polling gap over the summer and were hoping for a much closer contest amid a series of legislative wins and improving gas prices — but momentum appears to have swung back to the right just before the contests on 8 November.
The midterms don't get the attention that presidential elections command, but they are crucial in determining which party has control of Congress — and the power to advance or frustrate the president's agenda.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives — the lower chamber — are up for grabs, while a third of senators vie for re-election.
The evenly divided 100-member upper chamber — controlled by Democrats thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris' tie-breaking vote — is considered the more powerful and prestigious, with its statewide constituencies and six-year terms.
Five key states
At least eight of the 35 Senate races are considered competitive, but the battle for control of the chamber is likely to come down to five key states.
Democrat John Fetterman and Republican celebrity medic Mehmet Oz are duking it out for the seat held by a retiring Republican, in what remains Democrats' top target for flipping a seat.
In Nevada, for some time the country's closest race, Republican challenger Adam Laxalt leads Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto by a narrow 0.6 points in the polling average compiled by RealClearPolitics.
Democratic strategists have sounded the alarm over turnout, with many Latinos threatening to sit out the election despite Cortez Masto being the first-ever Latina woman elected to the US Senate.
In Georgia, Republican challenger Herschel Walker was looking like the Republicans' best bet for a pick-up against incumbent freshman Democrat and pastor Raphael Warnock.
Walker's name recognition as a former football star has kept him in the race despite a series of missteps overshadowing his campaign, and he leads Warnock by 1.4 points in the polling average.
Republican J.D. Vance has maintained a consistent if narrow lead over Democrat Tim Ryan in Ohio.
In Wisconsin, Republican Senator Ron Johnson struggled in the summer but pulled ahead of Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes in mid-September and is up by 3.3 points in an average of the last 16 polls.