Fuel prices are projected to decline sharply, with global oil markets shedding much of the geopolitical "war premium" that drove prices higher earlier this month.

Industry estimates based on Monday-to-Thursday data indicate diesel prices could fall by P7.50 to P9.50 per liter, while gasoline prices may decline by P3 to P5 per liter next week. 

According to Jetti Petroleum President Leo Bellas, world oil prices retreated this week as traders reassessed supply risks in the Middle East, unwinding premiums built into crude prices amid fears of disruptions in the region.

“World oil prices declined this week as the market has started to factor in the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the eventual return of Middle Eastern crude supplies after the United States and Iran reached an interim agreement,” Bellas said.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments, had become a focal point for supply concerns in recent weeks. As fears of a prolonged disruption eased, oil markets began pricing out the risk of supply shortages, pulling crude benchmarks lower.

The retreat in crude prices was particularly evident in the diesel market, where supply conditions improved as refiners secured replacement crude supplies and alternative feedstocks.

“Asian refiners were able to secure alternative crude feedstocks, allowing them to sustain higher refined product output despite disruptions linked to the earlier loss of Middle Eastern supply. This helped ease pressure on diesel and other middle distillate prices,” Bellas said.

Gasoline prices also softened as several refineries resumed operations following maintenance shutdowns and refiners sourced crude from outside the Middle East, helping narrow supply gaps across the region.

“These developments helped address gasoline supply gaps and softened prices, even as global demand remains relatively strong and inventories continue to stay below historical norms,” Bellas added.

A stronger Philippine peso further amplified the expected rollback by lowering the cost of imported petroleum products.

If current trends persist, Metro Manila pump prices could settle at P59.39 to P85.79 per liter for diesel products and P66.78 to P103.68 per liter for gasoline, depending on the grade.