Insurance shock drives price surge

Many think Iran is aching to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, but recent events in the Middle East turmoil belie that view.

The chokepoint is not a navy — it is an insurance desk in London.

The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical artery of the global oil trade, carrying roughly 20 million barrels a day, about a fifth of the world’s supply. Iran threatens to block it whenever tensions escalate in the Middle East. In reality, the disruption happens much earlier.

Global shipping operates on a simple rule: vessels do not move without insurance.

Tankers with payloads of more than $100 million worth of oil must carry protection and indemnity coverage against collisions, spills, piracy and war. Without it, ports will not accept them and banks will not finance the cargo.

This is where insurers enter the equation. Roughly 90 percent of the world’s commercial shipping is insured through a small network of maritime protection and indemnity clubs that rely heavily on reinsurance markets concentrated in London, including those linked to Lloyd’s of London.

When geopolitical risks spike, insurers reassess exposure to war zones. If the threat level rises sharply, premiums may be increased dramatically, or coverage may be withdrawn.

The result is immediate as ships hesitate to enter high-risk waters. Chartering costs climb and even if oil continues to be produced, the cost of moving it skyrockets.

And that cost ultimately finds its way to the fuel pump. What looks like a supply crisis is often a logistics and insurance crisis.

Even a temporary hesitation by tanker operators can tighten global supply. Fewer ships passing through the Gulf means fewer cargoes reaching refineries in Asia and Europe. Traders respond by bidding up available barrels, pushing oil prices higher.

For heavily import-dependent economies, like the Philippines, the effect is amplified.

A key factor for the high prices is the fear that there won’t be any oil left even before a tightening of supply occurs, explained Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas in a Straight Talk interview on Wednesday.

“So it’s more the fear that there won’t be any replenishment of crude. That’s the reason why, during the middle of last week, major refineries announced they would be limiting exports until eventually they won’t be serving new orders,” he said.

The Philippines is dependent on crude shipments from the Persian Gulf. Any disruption, whether physical or financial, quickly translates into higher freight costs, higher crude prices and ultimately soaring fuel prices.

Imports account for more than 90 percent of local fuel requirements, with a large share sourced from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. Nearly all these shipments transit through the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass daily, roughly one-fifth of the global supply.

When war-risk insurance premiums spike or tanker traffic slows, freight rates jump and crude prices climb, costs that quickly translate to higher pump prices for Filipino consumers.

The irony is that Iran, most often blamed for a Hormuz shutdown, is among the first to feel the pain.

Nearly all Iranian oil exports pass through the strait. If shipping insurance dries up, Iran’s ability to move crude to buyers is constrained as well.

This episode underscores a less visible reality of modern geopolitics. Energy markets are no longer shaped solely by presidents, generals, or missiles.

Financial systems also shape them. Insurance companies do not fire weapons or impose blockades. They price risk, and when it becomes too high, tankers stop sailing.

When tankers stop sailing, or even when markets believe they might, the world pays more for fuel.