Researchers from the University of the Philippines Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology (UP-IESM) said record-breaking rainfall — not upland real estate development — caused the severe flooding that hit Cebu City in November last year.

The study examined the Guadalupe and Kinalumsan basins to determine the main factors behind the deluge during Typhoon Tino.

The hydrological simulation specifically assessed the impact of the Monterrazas de Cebu project, which drew public criticism following the disaster.

According to the findings, the development had little to no effect on the flooding.

Data from the simulation showed that the project’s detention ponds actually reduced water runoff by about 2 percent in certain scenarios compared to when the land remained in its original grassland condition.

The report attributed the flooding primarily to the 428 millimeters of rainfall recorded within a 24-hour period, which researchers classified as an extreme record-level event that exceeded the natural absorption capacity of the local basins.

The study noted that the volume of rainfall was so significant that flooding would have occurred even if the area had remained undeveloped.

The findings support earlier statements by Department of Environment and Natural Resources Undersecretary Carlos Primo David, who previously said no single project was responsible for the flooding and pointed instead to a combination of environmental factors and the magnitude of the storm.

Public criticism on social media had focused on the mountainside development led by Slater Young, but the simulation suggested that engineering interventions within the project may have provided a minor buffer.

According to the report, the project’s built-in catch basins helped manage part of the water flow that the original terrain would not have been able to contain.