Urgent deliberations on a proposal to temporarily suspend excise taxes on fuel, following a request from President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., are being carefully studied by the House of Representatives to shield Filipinos from the impact of surging global oil prices.

Key government agencies on the economic, fiscal, and supply fronts briefed the House Committee on Ways and Means, chaired by Marikina City Rep. Miro Quimbo, on the implications of rising petroleum prices amid tensions in the Middle East.

The panel will hold a full-blown hearing on Wednesday to take up the proposed bill authorizing the temporary suspension of fuel excise taxes.

“We have to fast-track this. We’re waiting for the presidential certification so we can actually approve it as soon as possible,” Quimbo said.

The proposal would authorize the President, upon recommendation of economic managers, to temporarily suspend or reduce fuel excise taxes when global oil prices reach extraordinary levels.

The briefing was convened to gather data and assessments from government agencies before formal deliberations begin on the measure.

Officials from the Department of Economy, Planning and Development (DepDev) warned that escalating crude oil prices could push inflation beyond the government’s target range if the trend continues.

Based on simulations presented during the briefing, inflation could rise to between 4.5 percent and 5.1 percent under one scenario, while a more severe case could push inflation as high as 6.3 percent to 7.5 percent.

Energy officials also warned of a sharp spike in pump prices.

Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said fuel prices could increase by P17 to P24 per liter, which could trigger higher transportation costs and ripple through the prices of food and other goods.

She noted that diesel—widely used in public transport—carries a P6-per-liter excise tax, and suspending the levy could provide immediate relief to commuters and transport operators.

Lawmakers, though, were cautioned by finance officials about the fiscal impact of suspending fuel taxes.

Fuel-related taxes generate an average of about P276 billion annually, including P160 billion in excise taxes and P116 billion in value-added tax (VAT) collections.

Suspending fuel excise taxes from May to December alone could result in about P136 billion in foregone revenues, though part of the losses may be offset by additional VAT collections if oil prices continue to rise.

Despite the potential relief, Quimbo said lawmakers want clear safeguards to ensure that consumers—not oil companies—benefit from any tax suspension.

He cited the experience under the Rice Tariffication Law, which lowered tariffs on imported rice but did not immediately translate into lower prices for consumers.

“Yun ang pinakamalaking kinatatakutan namin—na magbaba tayo ng buwis pero hindi naman maramdaman ng taumbayan ang epekto,” Quimbo said.

“Doon kami takot na baka ang makikinabang lang dito ay ang malalaking oil companies o ang mga negosyante na nagbebenta ng gasolina,” he added.

Quimbo said the goal of the committee is to ensure that any policy response to rising oil prices is grounded in solid economic data while protecting both vulnerable sectors and the country’s middle class.