When elephants fight, only the grass dies

When elephants fight, only the grass dies | Daily Tribune

In the distant past, this African proverb described the tragic fate of the world’s second-largest continent, home to 54 sovereign countries, during imperial invasions by powerful European monarchies referred to as elephants.

They fought for territory, control, and wealth and trampled the grass; the ordinary people who had no role in the struggle yet suffered the consequences.

Fast forward to the present. In today’s highly connected world, an armed conflict involving major powers in any region affects countries everywhere, directly or indirectly. Geography no longer protects nations from distant wars. Capital flows, supply chains, energy markets, and diplomatic relations are disrupted when major powers collide. The effects travel quickly across oceans and continents.

Today, many developing and middle power countries are the grass referred to in that proverb.

The Middle East may seem far from our shores, yet in a world that is flat, according to Friedman, wars in strategic regions rarely stay confined to their immediate area.

When tensions rise between Israel and Iran, with the United States drawn into the situation, the impact spreads far beyond the desert. Markets react at once, shipping routes become vulnerable, and political alliances are tested. Even countries with no direct role in the conflict must adjust their policies to face new uncertainties.

The Philippines is neither a belligerent nor a combatant. Yet we are closely tied to the global system that such a conflict disrupts because our economy depends heavily on imports, especially energy.

Our modern heroes, the more than 10 million OFWs scattered across many continents, are also part of this story. About two and a half million are deployed in Israel and nearby Middle Eastern countries. Their safety becomes an immediate and serious concern whenever tensions rise.

Another worry is the possible halt to the billions of dollars they send home each month to support millions of Filipino families. Any disruption in their work or any large evacuation would cause deep anxiety for local households that depend on this lifeline.

The Middle East also remains central to the world’s energy supply. Any threat to vital shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20 percent of global oil passes, or to major oil-producing facilities, will quickly push energy prices upward.

For energy-importing countries like ours, this means higher fuel prices, rising transport costs, more expensive production, and greater inflation. In the end, the burden falls on the ordinary Filipino family whose household budget is already stretched.

Inflation is not just an economic theory. It is felt in the wet market, at the gasoline pump, and at the kitchen table.

Remittances from overseas workers are a vital pillar of our domestic economy. Any long period of instability in the Middle East that disrupts jobs or forces large evacuations could threaten our economic and social stability.

As a treaty ally of the United States, we may also face closer attention regarding our position if the conflict grows wider.

Our cooperation under existing defense agreements may face excessive public debate. In times of global tension, such a debate can easily shift from objective discussion to emotional reactions.

Our leaders, therefore, face a serious test in managing both the direct and indirect effects of such a war. This comes at a sensitive time as we continue to deal with our own territorial dispute with another claimant that maintains close ties with Iran and is a major importer of its oil.

If American military attention shifts heavily toward the Middle East, other regions may need to review their own security posture. History shows that when major powers are busy elsewhere, smaller flashpoints can grow.

The Philippines must strengthen its maritime vigilance without being provocative. We must assert our sovereign rights firmly while avoiding unnecessary drama.

At the same time, national unity becomes even more important because external tensions often deepen internal divisions.

In these uncertain times, the wisdom of the old proverb remains relevant. When elephants fight, those beneath them must move with care.

We cannot control events unfolding in distant deserts. But we can control our preparedness, our words, and our resolve. In a world where major powers compete and the global order faces strain, the Philippines must show strategic maturity. We must understand clearly both our weaknesses and our strengths.

A smaller nation is not powerless when it is prudent, united, and forward-looking.

When elephants fight, the small but steady must rely on their wisdom to avoid being trampled.