Preserving a fragile world order in time of global uncertainty

Preserving a fragile world order in time of global uncertainty | Daily Tribune

Imagine going to bed after your usual evening doom scroll and night time skincare routine, only to wake up the next morning to news feeds filled with photos of bombardments, drone strikes, and fears of a wider war spreading across continents.

In just a few days, headlines have chronicled a dramatic escalation among the United States, Israel, and Iran, with missile launches, drone attacks, and bombing of military and civilian infrastructure echoing across the Gulf region.

Cities like Abu Dhabi, Kuwait City, and Bahrain have reported explosions and debris falling from intercepted missiles, even as global leaders warn that this could be just the beginning of a much broader confrontation.

There is something deeply unsettling about waking up to the word “war” stitched across every post and alert — and for a week now the phrase “World War III” has been casually tossed around online and in media commentaries and the digital space.

But let’s be realistic: this is not just a geopolitical show or a musical that will end in an “everybody happy scenario.” We’re talking about real human consequences unfolding before our eyes in real time.

This morning, we read that some foreign governments have evacuated their nationals in the Middle East due to the rising threats and some innocent civilians have died due to the retaliatory strikes. For Filipinos with relatives and friends working in the Middle East, this is a source of anxiety. If there is one safest place an OFW could be, that would be “home.”

Yes, the world order we have grown accustomed to is imperfect but relatively stable and it rests on fragile balances. Major powers are interconnected economically even when they disagree politically. Supply chains stretch across continents. Oil from the Gulf fuels industries in Asia. Electronics manufactured in one region depend on raw materials from another. We are not isolated islands; we are deeply entangled.

And precisely because we are so connected, escalation becomes far more dangerous. A miscalculation can strain alliances elsewhere. A military strike can trigger economic consequences in markets that had nothing to do with the original conflict. History has shown how quickly regional conflicts can widen when pride, retaliation, and strategic signaling spiral beyond control.

One of the most immediate global concerns now is the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. For those not familiar with this body of water, it is one of the world’s maritime chokepoints under the control of Iran. Any disruption in this narrow passage will be felt not only by the Gulf States but by all the countries benefiting from it. Twenty percent of all the oil traded on earth passes through here — Saudi oil, UAE, Kuwaiti, Iraqi oil all exit through one channel.

For trade-dependent economies like the Philippines, these developments inevitably raise the questions: Will fuel prices spike? Will freight costs rise? Will supply chains tighten?

The Philippine Ports Authority (PPA) has assured that the country’s ports remain fully operational and no disruptions affect the system at this time. In an era where misinformation can travel faster than vessels at sea, this reassurance matters.

PPA general manager (GM) Jay Santiago explained that the country’s exposure to shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz is largely energy-related, primarily crude oil, refined petroleum products, and liquefied natural gas, alongside limited petrochemicals, fertilizer, and some containerized cargo from Gulf transshipment hubs such as Jebel Ali. In short, while the Philippines is connected to global energy flows, our ports are not facing operational paralysis.

That said, realism must temper reassurance. As GM Santiago noted, prolonged instability in global shipping corridors may exert upward pressure on freight rates, bunker costs, and eventually cargo volumes. Even if ports remain physically open and operational, the economics of shipping can shift rapidly when geopolitical risks rise. Increased transport costs can ripple through supply chains, potentially affecting traders, businesses and consumers.

The PPA has reiterated its commitment to closely coordinate with shipping lines, port operators, and the relevant government agencies. Monitoring global developments is not a passive exercise; it is part of safeguarding the uninterrupted movement of trade through Philippine ports.

Global powers understand that a full-scale confrontation would destabilize energy markets, disrupt trade, and threaten domestic stability at home. Let us hope wisdom outweighs impulse. Let us hope diplomacy prevails over deterrence-by-destruction. And let us remember that preserving the existing global order, however flawed as it may be, is far better than watching it collapse into chaos that none of us can afford for we are all in the same boat.

In times like this we are reminded that peace is not just an idea, it is a choice we have to make every single day. It is a necessity because lives are at stake every single second. It is the foundation upon which civilizations thrive. While global leaders calculate and decide with precision, the rest of us can pray that wisdom and restraint, and most especially diplomacy, can avert the catastrophic effects of this looming war wherein each country would need to choose sides.

Either we are at the table, or we are on the menu. Let us always choose peace.