The Manila Electric Co. (Meralco), the country’s largest power distributor, is expecting a slow start to 2026 but remains confident in full-year growth, targeting a 3 percent increase in energy sales.

Meralco Senior Vice President and Chief Revenue Officer Ferdinand O. Geluz told reporters that the first-quarter slowdown was anticipated due to lingering weather effects.

“I think we already (mentioned) that the first quarter is somewhat challenging. As early as last year, we already forecasted this because the first quarter last year was like the tail end of El Niño. And right now, it’s the tail end of La Niña. So we’re anticipating a recovery starting in the second quarter as the weather warms,” Geluz explained.

Energization levels remain stable at around 1,000 gigawatt-hour (GWh), leaving organic demand as the main driver of growth. 

Recovery, Geluz said, depends partly on the gradual re-occupation of real estate spaces previously held by Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGOs) and other vacant properties.

POGO sites are slowly filling up, while other spaces—often rented as warehouses—are expected to be converted into townships over time.

The utility cautioned that economic and operational risks remain, including potential oversupply in consumer goods and disruptions from government or class suspensions.

February data indicated residential demand continues to contract, while industrial consumption edged up only slightly.

Last year, Meralco’s distribution unit posted consolidated energy sales of 53,997 GWh, nearly flat from 54,325 GWh in 2024. 

Volumes fell 0.7 percent due to extreme weather shifts, slower economic activity, and growing rooftop solar adoption. Clark Electric grew 3 percent, while Shin Clark rose 18 percent, adding nearly 20 GWh and 0.7 GWh, respectively.

Commercial customers, the largest segment at 38 percent of total sales, consumed 20,326 GWh, supported by retail expansions, quick service restaurants, cafés, and school upgrades. 

Residential demand, which accounted for 35 percent of sales, declined to 19,060 GWh as cooler temperatures, typhoon impacts, La Niña conditions, and household solar installations reduced cooling-related consumption, though new service energizations helped offset some losses. 

Industrial sales, representing 27 percent of the total, rose 1 percent to 14,465 GWh, buoyed by semiconductor and construction demand despite challenges in food and beverage, plastics, and embedded generators.