President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. sought to calm fears of a fuel shortage as the war between the United States and Iran threatened to disrupt the global oil supply, saying the Philippines has sufficient stockpiles and contingency plans if crude prices surge.

“First of all, let me assure everyone that we have a sufficient supply of oil. We have stockpiles of approximately 50 to 60 days in terms of gasoline, fuel oil, and kerosene,” Marcos said.

He said current reserves can last about 50 days for diesel, gasoline, and fuel oil; 67 days for kerosene; 58 days for jet fuel; and 29 days for liquefied petroleum gas.

“We are okay for that period of time,” he said, adding that suppliers also maintain additional stocks that have not yet been released or exported.

The Middle East conflict escalated after US strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader, prompting retaliatory missile and drone attacks across the Gulf.

Explosions have rocked Tehran, drones have struck the US embassy in Riyadh, and Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for about 20 percent of global seaborne oil.

“Hopefully, within four to five weeks, the level of intensity of the fighting will come down and oil production will start to normalize,” Marcos said.

Fuel subsidies

Industry players have warned of immediate price pressures.

Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas said early Mean of Platts Singapore indications show diesel rising by more than $10 per barrel and gasoline climbing over $5 a barrel.

If sustained that could mean an increase of about P4 per liter for diesel and P2 per liter for gasoline, he said.

Dubai crude last closed at $68.34 per barrel, below the $80 threshold that would automatically trigger government fuel subsidies.

Marcos said targeted fuel subsidies are ready for the transport and agriculture sectors if prices breach that level.

“As soon as oil prices breach $80 per barrel, we will act and use the funds,” he said, referring to the Pantawid Pasada Program and subsidies for farmers and fisherfolk.

He said the government was studying temporary no-fare bus rides and staggered price adjustments by oil firms to soften the impact.

“We are looking for whatever subsidies we will need to provide so that the working public will not feel the effects too severely,” Marcos said.

He said he may seek emergency authority from Congress to suspend the excise tax on fuel if crude prices spike sharply.

“It will not be permanent. It will be something we will remove as soon as the crisis is over,” he said.

Carpool to save

Marcos urged Filipinos to conserve fuel.

“We have instructed all government offices to find ways to save energy. Let us find ways to reduce our use of all sources of energy. The supply is sufficient for now, but we may need to do this to reduce what we pay if prices rise,” he said.

He encouraged the public to avoid unnecessary travel, use public transportation, and carpool.

“These are things the general public can do. Fill your vehicles; do not have only one person using a car. We will issue further guidance on what else can be done to reduce energy use,” he said.

Lawmakers, meanwhile, renewed calls to suspend the excise tax and value-added tax on fuel, noting that the global volatility was again being passed on to consumers.

Fare hike

Meanwhile, the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB) said it was considering a provisional fare increase for public utility vehicles if regular diesel prices reach P60 per liter.

This came after oil firms announced another round of price hikes, with diesel increasing by P1.20 per liter and kerosene by P1.50 per liter, marking the 10th consecutive week of increases.

“We are definitely considering it. Because of the Middle East crisis and the continued increase in fuel prices, we have definitely considered granting a provisional increase,” said LTFRB chairman Vigor Mendoza in an interview.

Mendoza said the agency has yet to determine the amount of the provisional fare adjustment or when it might be implemented.

“We would have to conduct another public hearing. So we’re studying the options available to us, including granting provisional fare increases in the meantime, while fuel price volatility remains high,” he added.