Marcos Jr.’s miscalculation may cause his downfall
By the end of 2025, after a series of political blunders, Marcos’s popularity had plummeted, with his administration facing mass demonstrations amid swirling coup rumors
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By the end of 2025, after a series of political blunders, Marcos’s popularity had plummeted, with his administration facing mass demonstrations amid swirling coup rumors
According to a political scientist, “Marcos Jr.’s biggest political miscalculation was arranging for an Interpol arrest warrant to be carried out in March 2025 in a procedurally questionable manner against his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, who was charged with crimes against humanity in the International Criminal Court for his drug war.
“Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Filipinos expressed opposition to Duterte’s arrest — though disinformation may have influenced some respondents—with the outrage strongest in his regional stronghold of southern Mindanao and among fellow Bisayan language speakers. By extraditing his predecessor to the ICC, Marcos won praise from human rights advocates, but this allowed the Dutertes to galvanize support by claiming political persecution.”
How did it get to that point? Let us navigate through the stages and the events that went viral almost every hour of the day since both Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte assumed office on 30 June 2022.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had cause to be optimistic as 2025 began. While his popularity had dipped after his political brawl with the Duterte clan, that of his rival Vice President Duterte had also declined.
By the end of 2025, after a series of political blunders, Marcos’s popularity had plummeted with his administration facing mass demonstrations amid swirling coup rumors.
Now on the defensive—particularly after the Supreme Court threw out Duterte’s impeachment on technical grounds in July 2025—the President tried to shift the narrative to a fight against corruption.
In his fourth State of the Nation Address, he called out corrupt contractors who, supposedly at the behest of greedy politicians, built fictitious or substandard flood control projects — ghost projects — in a year in which unusually severe typhoons wreaked havoc across the country.
While some progressive groups have wished a Shakespearean “plague on both houses” --- calling for the resignation of both Marcos and Duterte—blame seemed to fall more on the Marcos administration, as indicated by the President's low polling.
Instead of weakening the Duterte clan—who have also been accused of allowing substandard flood control projects to be built in their bailiwick—corruption charges have implicated members of Marcos’s ruling circle, particularly his cousin, former House speaker Martin Romualdez and former executive secretary Lucas Bersamin.
In early December 2025, Marcos ordered Congress to prioritize four measures designed to institutionalize transparency and accountability, including an anti-dynasty bill. But critics said the measures would only further entrench the country’s powerful dynasties, starting with the Marcos clan itself.
In the words of a political scientist keenly observing the current developments: “The fallout from the cascading scandals raises questions about Marcos’s political survival. Even if he manages to stay in office, surveys show Sara Duterte remains the strongest presidential contender for the 2028 presidential election and if she wins, a Trump-style retribution tour against him seems likely.
“It is the Marcos clan, rather than the Duterte dynasty, that stands accused in the court of public opinion. Marcos’s promises to uphold civil liberties and improve government accountability appear to hold limited discursive power against resurgent illiberal populism, fueled by grievances and the allure of punitive leadership.”
Email: arturobesana2@gmail.com
