Phl in a ‘slow, grinding’ crisis

Based on early reports this year, the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is facing significant pressure from a combination of high-profile corruption scandals, economic stagnation, and a deepening rift with the Duterte political alliance. While some reports describe a “slow, grinding” crisis rather than an immediate, sudden collapse, the situation has created substantial instability.

Current Landscape and Factors of Change (Early 2026):

1. Corruption Perception: The Philippines saw its worst-ever ranking in the 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index (released February 2026), falling to 120th out of 182 countries primarily due to the anomalous flood control projects.


2. Declining Popularity: The alliance between the Marcos and Duterte factions has completely broken down, leading to increased political maneuverings and calls for impeachment.

3. Economic Pressures: The country is experiencing slow growth, high inflation, and a weakened peso, which increases public discontent.

Likelihood of a “sudden” change:

While there is significant discontent, observers suggest a few potential scenarios for change.

1. Political Maneuvering/Impeachment: The most likely, albeit uncertain, avenue for a change in administration before 2028 is through impeachment or intense pressure for a Cabinet overhaul, which was rumored in early 2026.


2. Gradual Decline vs. Sudden Collapse: Some analysts suggest the administration is managing the crisis through political maneuvers rather than system reforms, attempting to avoid a rapid collapse, despite the “weakening grip” on power.

3. Crucial 2026: Observers indicate 2026 will be the most critical year for the administration, with the potential for growing discontent to force significant shifts in the government structure if high-level prosecutions do not satisfy the public.

Based on a 12 February 2026 report, the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos

Jr. is navigating a “slow and grinding” crisis characterized by massive corruption scandals and economic slowdown and “quiet decay” with GDP growth below the government’s 5.5%--6.5% target, marking the weakest growth since the post-pandemic era.

Due to the sluggish economy, the Marcos administration has tempered revenue collection targets through 2028, signaling a long-term impact on government funds.

Filipinos will have to struggle with high prices and stagnant wages, leading to a feeling of “slow grinding suffocation.”

Impeachment Threat: Despite the House Committee on Justice dismissing initial impeachment complaints as insufficient in substance on 4 February 2026, opposition lawmakers and activists continue to push the issue with allegations of strong evidence-–through text messages-–linking the President to flood control kickbacks.

Summary of Material Impact

The “slow and grinding” nature of the period means that, rather than a sudden crash, the Filipino people are experiencing a persistent, quiet erosion of their purchasing power, delays in crucial infrastructure (e.g. only 22 of 1,400 promised classrooms completed in 2025), and a dysfunctional political landscape.

There is no consensus on a specific date for a sudden change of administration. The situation is characterized by high, accumulating, and unresolved corruption and discontent, which has placed the government on a “decisive crossroads” in 2026.

Abrupt, non-electoral change is considered possible if the crises in corruption, the economy, and political stability accelerate concurrently, but the administration is actively attempting to maintain the position.