A newly launched Industry Index by IFH KÖLN and Messe Frankfurt points to a mixed global outlook for trade-fair-related consumer goods sectors, with political uncertainty, regulatory pressure, and uneven growth continuing to challenge companies worldwide.

The Industry Index, introduced for the first time this year, serves as an international sentiment and trend barometer for consumer goods companies. Based on a survey of 945 exhibitors and visitors from more than 60 countries, the index recorded an overall score of 100.1, indicating stable but subdued sentiment across the industry.

Regional results show clear differences. Asia posted the strongest outlook with an index score of 105.3, followed by the United States at 102.5. Europe remained below the global average at 98.9, reflecting a more cautious mood among companies operating in the region. Despite these variations, respondents across all markets generally viewed their own business situation more positively than the condition of the industry as a whole.

Political developments and trade tensions emerged as key concerns. Almost half of exhibitors (47 percent) and visitors (46 percent) expect political measures to negatively affect their businesses. Tariffs and trade restrictions are already having a direct impact, with 49 percent of exhibitors reporting effects on their operations. The impact is most pronounced in the United States, where 75 percent of exhibitors are affected, followed by Asia at 58 percent and Europe at 33 percent.

At the same time, many companies feel unprepared for further changes. About 44 percent of exhibitors and 38 percent of visitors said they are only partially prepared for potential shifts in tariffs and import restrictions.

“The framework conditions remain challenging – this is clearly reflected in the Industry Index. At the same time, companies are sending encouraging signals when it comes to their own business development. The strong interest in our leading trade fairs Ambiente, Christmasworld and Creativeworld underlines this confidence. The industry’s desire is clear: reliable framework conditions and greater entrepreneurial freedom instead of additional regulation,” said Detlef Braun, Member of the Executive Board of Messe Frankfurt.

Looking ahead to the next six months, expectations for the overall consumer goods sector remain cautious. Only 28 percent of exhibitors anticipate positive development, while 49 percent expect conditions to worsen. However, confidence improves when companies assess their own operations. About 42 percent of exhibitors expect improvement or stability in their businesses. Among visitors, 27 percent expect growth, while 47 percent foresee stable conditions.

“Many consumer goods segments are currently under considerable pressure: intense price competition and shrinking margins are affecting companies just as much as ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and rising production costs. This combination makes one thing clear: companies must act now. Those who further develop their business models, make their value chains more resilient and no longer postpone necessary strategic adjustments will be far better equipped to navigate this challenging phase,” said Dr. Ralf Deckers, Head of Strategic Insights & Analytics at IFH KÖLN.

Growth trends mirror this cautious outlook. Total consumer spending is expected to rise by 1.7 percent in Europe, compared with 3.0 percent in the United States and 3.7 percent in Asia. Private consumption remains weakest in Europe at 0.4 percent, while Asia leads at 4.6 percent. The global turnover of the consumer goods segments covered by the index is estimated at €946 billion.