Motorists may face another budget squeeze next week as fuel prices head for what could be their third straight weekly increase, based on early industry estimates and global market indicators.

In a text message on Friday, Rodela Romero, director at the Department of Energy’s Oil Industry Management Bureau, said international oil prices “see-sawed” early in the week due to the latest United States sanctions on Russian oil and optimism over a potential end to the US government shutdown.

Supply outweighing demand

“But this was capped off by a prediction that rising supply will outweigh demand,” Romero said, noting that these developments shaped the preliminary projections for next week.

Romero said early estimates point to an increase of around P0.60 for gasoline, P0.75 for diesel and P1.00 for kerosene.

She added that the final estimates will be completed after today’s Mean of Platts Singapore trading, with the inclusion of oil companies’ cost of doing business and other premiums.

Once implemented, the price movement will take effect on Tuesday morning.

Possibly steeper adjustments

Meanwhile, Jetti Petroleum Inc. president Leo Bellas suggested steeper possible adjustments for next week, estimating that diesel could increase by P1.00 to P1.20, while gasoline may rise by around P1.30 to P1.50.

Bellas said diesel and middle distillate prices remain supported by tight fundamentals as supply is constrained by refinery turnarounds, along with concerns that Western sanctions on Russian oil could further disrupt trade flows.

He added that gasoline prices continue to gain support amid firm regional demand that is drawing down inventories, while exports from major regional producers have been declining due to refinery outages and planned turnarounds.

“Further upside to prices is expected to be capped as supply tightness is seen to gradually ease with refineries returning from the seasonal turnaround,” he said.

The expected adjustments follow this week’s increase, when gasoline rose by P0.50 per liter and diesel by P1 per liter.