Fuel prices are headed in different directions next week, with gasoline expected to ease after two weeks of sharp hikes, while diesel and kerosene remain on the upswing as geopolitical tensions continue to squeeze global supply.

The Department of Energy (DoE) said Friday that initial trading in the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) points to a mixed movement in pump prices for the coming week.

Mixed movement

“Based on the four-day trading in MOPS, a mixed movement in the prices of petroleum products is expected to happen next week,” DoE Oil Industry Management Bureau Director Rodela Romero said, noting the estimates do not yet include oil companies’ operating costs and other premiums.

Romero said gasoline may roll back by around P0.35 per liter, while diesel is tracking an increase of about P0.30 per liter and kerosene by P0.35 per liter.

“A combination of Ukraine’s drone attack on Russia’s Black Sea port, its major export hub, and sanctions contributed to the increases. On the other hand, expectation of OPEC+ production ramp-up is making the oil market bearish,” Romero said.

Larger increase in diesel price

Industry player Jetti Petroleum provided a similar directional outlook, but flagged a potentially larger increase for diesel.

Jetti president Leo Bellas said diesel prices could rise by P0.50 to P0.70 per liter next week, while gasoline could range from a P0.10 rollback to a P0.10 increase.

Bellas noted that while global crude benchmarks have softened, refined fuel prices remain elevated amid supply tightness, with diesel markers reflecting reduced regional output and lean inventories.

Gasoline, he said, was supported by firm Asian demand despite higher export volumes from China.

“Gasoline supply concerns due to planned refinery turnarounds and unplanned outages in the region have put a floor on prices,” he added.

This week, fuel retailers increased pump prices by P1.70 per liter for gasoline, P2.70 per liter for diesel, and P2.10 per liter for kerosene.