As fears of the “Big One” have resurfaced following the recent 6.9-magnitude earthquake that hit Cebu, the government is set to revisit a 2004 study on earthquakes in collaboration with Japan next year.

Director Teresito Bacolcol of the Department of Science and Technology (DoST)-Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), said in a forum on Saturday they were currently in talks with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) to revisit the 2004 Earthquake Impact Reduction Study for Metro Manila.

“There are already ongoing talks with JICA, OCD (Office of Civil Defense), DoST, and of course, our office,” Bacolcol said

Casualties would be high

According to the 21-year-old study by JICA, Phivolcs, and the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority, if a 7.2-magnitude earthquake strikes the National Capital Region (NCR), Metro Manila alone could have a casualty count of as high as 33,500 fatalities and 113,600 injuries to the 9,932,560 population.

The population has continuously increased since then and according to the Philippine Statistics Authority 2024 Population Census, the NCR’s population stands at 14,001,751.

“We will revisit the study. Of course, that’s already 20 years old and a lot has happened. The population of Metro Manila grew and there are a lot of new buildings so we really need to revisit the study,” Bacolcol said.

He said the new study will begin next year and is expected to be completed within two years.