Mixed fuel price shifts likely next week

Pump prices are expected to move in mixed directions for the second straight week, with gasoline likely to post a slight rollback while diesel and kerosene may increase.

In a statement on Friday, Department of Energy Oil Industry Management Bureau Rodela Romero said gasoline may decline by around P0.05 per liter, while diesel and kerosene are projected to rise by about P0.50 and P0.25 per liter, respectively.

“The following are the estimated adjustments for next week based on the Mean of Platts Singapore’s four-day trading only. The cost of doing business and other premiums are not yet included in these estimates,” Romero said. 

Romero noted that global oil price movements were influenced by new U.S. sanctions on Iran, concerns over an OPEC+ output hike, and market caution ahead of the group’s October 5 meeting. 

“Traders are cautious ahead of the OPEC+ meeting with prices reacting sharply to headlines rather than fundamentals,” she added.

Jetti Petroleum, Inc. President Leo Bellas gave a similar outlook, estimating a diesel increase of around P0.80 to P1.00 per liter and gasoline to range between a rollback of P0.10 and an increase of P0.10.

He explained that Asian diesel prices remain supported “due to shifting of regional flows to the West to meet the demands from the US and Europe as the ongoing autumn refinery maintenance, peak harvest season demand, and Russia’s partial diesel export ban have raised the risk of supply shortfalls.”

For gasoline, Bellas said prices have retreated from record highs amid rising inventories and softer seasonal demand, but support remains due to refinery outages, Indonesia’s spot demand, and Russia’s ban on gasoline exports.

“Further pushing the potential movement of domestic pump prices next week to the upside is the weaker Philippine peso against the US dollar,” Bellas added.

This week, gasoline prices fell by P0.20 per liter, snapping a five-week consecutive increase. In contrast, diesel and kerosene each rose by P0.90 per liter, marking their sixth straight week of hikes.