The Department of Agriculture (DA) has revised its rice production forecast for 2025 downward amid extreme weather disturbances, tempering earlier expectations of a record harvest.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. told lawmakers during the DA’s 2026 budget presentation before the House Committee on Appropriations that palay output this year is now expected to settle between 20.09 and 20.39 million metric tons – slightly below the earlier 20.46 million MT projection. The revised outlook translates to 12.65 to 12.85 million MT of milled rice.

“The rainfall volume we’ve seen in recent months has been unprecedented,” Tiu Laurel said.

“This is just a more conservative stance – prudence in the face of uncertainty.”

Despite the adjustment, the DA noted that production is still on track to surpass last year’s 19.09 million MT, which had been depressed by the combined effects of El Niño and La Niña. In the first half of 2025 alone, palay output rose 6.4 percent year-on-year to 9.08 million MT, aided by favorable weather conditions and intensified government support.

The DA emphasized that the second half of the year, which historically accounts for more than half of annual rice harvests, will be crucial in determining if output reaches the upper end of its forecast.

Price concerns are also shaping the sector. Tiu Laurel acknowledged that volatility in palay prices could affect farmers’ planting intentions, particularly after President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ordered a two-month suspension of rice importation beginning 1 September to help stabilize farm-gate prices.

By year-end, the DA expects rice supply to range between 3.86 and 3.96 million MT – equivalent to 96 to 101 days of national consumption, based on the Philippine Statistics Authority’s per capita estimate of 122.7 kilos annually.

Tiu Laurel stressed that sustaining rice security hinges on continued investment in agriculture, citing the agency’s proposed P176.7-billion budget for 2026 as a “critical investment” to modernize the sector and boost farmer and fisherfolk incomes.

Several lawmakers, led by Committee on Appropriations chairperson Nueva Ecija Rep. Mikaela Angela Suansing, signaled support for the DA’s spending plan, even expressing openness to higher capital outlays.