It is an open secret. It is open because everybody knows it. The US has returned to Subic to “secretly” make it the center of American presence in the Asia Pacific. It has the best strategic deep-water seaport unrivalled in the entire Asia Pacific. Subic is capable of hosting an array of the largest stealth nuclear submarines. Indeed, Subic mimics the power and vastness of the US Navy HQ in San Diego, California. It is the eastern component of the US Navy HQ.

Before the US evacuated Subic due to the imminent Mt. Pinatubo eruption in June 1991, it already “secretly” housed underwater missile silos and nuclear submarine berths. Alas, the US was shocked when the Philippines did not renew the rental for Subic after the eruption — but not for long. The US later offered a rental fee the Philippines could not refuse. (Source: Technova) Thus, America is back.

Under the new Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), the Philippines and the US will “share” the naval base — but that is on paper. In reality, it is a de facto US naval base that politely accommodates the host country’s puny navy.

It is understood that the US will not have to inform the Philippines about sensitive confidential intelligence and security information, what weapons and arsenals and warships the US has at Subic at any time. The US can theoretically (if they have not done so yet), without permission, bring in B-52s, ICBMs, all types of deadly attack and surveillance drones, that the Philippines would not know about.

Of course, it is not a secret to China, which has deep and detailed intelligence data being reported in real time to Beijing 24/7. A series of arrests since December of 2024 bared how deeply hi-tech Chinese espionage has been going on, perhaps in the last five years, or even earlier.

Teng Wan Ting, a PLA operative, was caught with high-tech equipment that could send massive detailed espionage data in real time to China. (Source: Daily Tribune StarGazer column, “Chinese Hi-tech Espionage Equipment Alarms AFP”)

Assuming that China has deep espionage data on the new Subic, it is understood that, in case of an all-out war with Taiwan, China will know how to neutralize Subic, whether on a first-strike preemptive basis or not. Subic, the center of the American presence in the Asia Pacific theater, as China knows it, will be a critical target in an all-out war with Taiwan.

In some sense, however, Filipinos welcome the US as a relief against the Chinese hegemony, especially China’s bully tactics in Philippine territory in the South China Sea, as proclaimed by The Hague decision which China refuses to honor.

China has resorted to a variety of harassments, including ramming Philippine Coast Guard and Filipino fishermen’s vessels, using lasers and water cannons, even making threats with archaic bolos, and blocking food deliveries to the Filipinos in the disputed areas.

In truth, being neutral is the best — but it is an impossible — option. “Either you are with me or against me,” both the US and China will say.