FMCG on track to hit 2025 growth target — study

As the Christmas season nears, the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry is expected to benefit from increased consumer spending, potentially surpassing the 5 percent growth target for this year, according to a top official of Worldpanel by Numerator (formerly Worldpanel by Kantar).

In an earlier forecast, Worldpanel by Numerator projected that the FMCG industry would achieve a 4 to 5 percent growth this year.

Based on year-to-date data as of June 2025, FMCG growth stands at 4.5 percent—within the company’s forecast range.

With signs of financial relief, such as easing inflation, and despite anticipated hurdles, Laurice Obana, Shopper Insights Director at Worldpanel by Numerator, believes there are pockets of opportunity that will continue to sustain FMCG growth.

“There’s a big chance that we could [surpass the target growth], as during Christmas, there’s normally more money to spend. So, it is possible,” she told reporters during a roundtable briefing at Shangri-La The Fort on Wednesday.

In its 2024 report, Kantar noted that Southeast Asia’s FMCG market remained resilient in the final quarter of 2024, with a growth rate of 4.6 percent.

Despite the modest increase—driven largely by the food sector—the region shows positive momentum. Indonesia and the Philippines led the way, both achieving growth rates above 5 percent, according to the global data, insights, and consulting firm.

Extra work to manage finances

Meanwhile, the Shopperscope 2025 report stated that Filipinos are experiencing progress in trickles this 2025, with 75 percent saying they continue to hustle or do extra work to better manage their finances.

The Shopperscope report, conducted from February to April 2025, dove deep into the mindsets and perceptions of Filipinos to help brands and retailers better understand how shoppers view their financial standing—which directly influences shopping behavior.

The research revealed that many Filipinos from this group were in a deficit a year ago, but through continued perseverance, they are now coping financially better.

Worldpanel by Numerator noted that only 14 percent of Filipinos identify as being comfortable—those with the resources to afford most things, though not necessarily without restrictions.

The remaining 11 percent said they are struggling with their current situation—either in making ends meet or covering family expenses each month.

Shopperscope is an annual study on Filipinos’ current financial disposition, shopping habits and preferences, and personal economic outlook, based on interviews with 2,000 Filipino respondents. These respondents are classified into three groups: Comfortable, Managing, and Struggling.

In 2024, Shopperscope found that 73 percent of Filipinos were in the Managing category—able to make ends meet, but often through side hustles or extra work.

“Our Shopperscope data indicates a 10-point increase among Filipinos who believe that their financial situation will improve in the next 12 months. However, our respondents remain cautious and continue to keep tabs on rising grocery and fuel prices. Health and well-being are also at the top of their concerns in 2025,” Obana explained.

Moreover, Obana said that Filipinos, regardless of their financial situation, always prioritize value.

"While price remains a major consideration, we’ve seen an evolved understanding of value—where quality for the price paid is already taken into account, and choice is not just driven by the lowest price in the market," she said.

Smarter shopping, expanding baskets

According to Obana, Filipinos are now shopping smarter—stretching their budgets to accommodate more FMCG categories in their baskets.

They continue to prioritize basic needs such as bread, biscuits, coffee mixes, and powdered laundry detergents, but are also treating themselves with affordable upgrades like liquid laundry detergents and ready-to-drink coffee.

Occasionally, shoppers allocate extra budget for items such as butter, cosmetics, and hair colorant products. Pet food is another category growing in relevance among Filipino households.

Local consumers are also becoming more health-conscious, willing to spend slightly more on premium products that justify their benefits.

In 2025, more Filipinos are setting aside a larger portion of their budget for health-related expenses, choosing healthier options such as low-sugar beverages and low-sodium seasonings.

When it comes to shopping trips, Worldpanel by Numerator found that Filipinos are visiting more stores and shopping more frequently this year.

Brands that are available in more channels are more likely to be included in shopper baskets. In fact, 66 percent of FMCG brands present in five or more channels have shown growth—compared to only 56 percent growth among brands available in only one or two channels.

“Our research shows that as financial relief trickles down—though at different stages—Filipinos will continue to practice temperance, balancing their savings while not forgetting to allow some treats for themselves.

Brands need to have a better understanding of what value means to the consumer for them to continue thriving in the FMCG market,” Obana said.