Global market woes, US slowdown raise stakes for key Phl data releases

The Philippines is bracing for a critical week of economic indicators amid fresh global headwinds, as signs of a slowdown in the United States cast a shadow on investor sentiment and may influence local monetary and fiscal positioning.

US markets slumped for the fourth straight day on Friday (US time), dragged down by disappointing jobs and manufacturing data that stoked concerns over the health of the world’s largest economy. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost between 1.2 and 2.2 percent, marking their sharpest weekly drop in nearly a month.

While the US Federal Reserve is now seen to cut interest rates by as much as 0.61 percentage point by the end of 2025 – higher than its previous projection of 0.50 point – economists warned the underlying weakness could ripple through emerging markets, including the Philippines.

“The Fed may ease policy sooner, but this is driven by softer fundamentals that could dampen external demand,” said Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation Chief Economist Michael Ricafort.

Ricafort cited the July US non-farm payrolls report, which showed only 73,000 jobs added – up from a heavily downgraded 14,000 in June, but still among the lowest in more than four years. The US unemployment rate also rose to 4.2 percent, while factory activity shrank further, raising red flags for global trade and investment flows.

These developments come at a crucial time for the Philippines, with a packed domestic data calendar that could shape the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) policy stance and guide market movements in August.

The BSP will release bank lending and domestic liquidity (M3) figures on 4 August, followed by July inflation data and the launch of the Retail Treasury Bond offering on 5 August. The Labor Force Survey is scheduled for 6 August, while second-quarter GDP and gross international reserves will be unveiled on 7 August.

“These indicators will be key to gauging the economy’s resilience amid global uncertainty,” Ricafort said.

He also noted the timing of these releases comes just ahead of the traditional “Ghost Month” period from 23 August to 21 September, when investor activity typically slows, especially in local equities and real estate.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions further cloud the global picture. US President Donald Trump claimed over the weekend that two American nuclear submarines had been repositioned in response to provocative statements by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Trump also called on the US Federal Reserve Board to override Chair Jerome Powell if he refuses to lower interest rates.

Amid this volatile backdrop, the Philippines must closely monitor both domestic fundamentals and external risks, particularly as inflation remains elevated and global demand shows signs of softening.

“Any shift in Fed policy could affect capital flows, the peso, and borrowing costs. But for now, all eyes are on the Philippine economic scorecard this week,” Ricafort said.