Biz groups mum on lowered rate

As President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. returned from Washington touting a one-percentage-point win on US tariff reductions, business leaders remained largely silent, apparently wary in calling the new 19 percent export tax a victory.

With industries still waiting for details and economists warning of slowed growth, what Marcos framed as a diplomatic success faces questions at home if indeed it is worth the price of opening Philippine markets further to American goods, sans duties.

“We are still studying and discussing this issue. Please give us a little time,” said Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry president Enunina Mangio on Wednesday.

The Makati Business Club (MBC) also asked for ample time while still waiting for important details of the transpired negotiations between Trump and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Tuesday.

“Specifically, we need to know if electronics are exempt, since that is our principal export to the US,” said Apa Ongpin, the executive director of the MBC.

For Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr., president of Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc., he will not provide any comment as he has no good words for the new export tax rates.

Not a complete surprise

Meanwhile, the chief economist of Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation, Michael Ricafort, said the 19 percent lowered tariff rates for the Philippines from the previous 20 percent are no longer a surprise.

“The latest 19 percent US import tariffs on Philippine goods/exports to the US is slightly higher than the 17 percent previous reciprocal tariffs on 2 April but similar nevertheless and does not come as a complete surprise, as some ASEAN and Asian countries were also imposed with higher tariffs vs. 2 April and also mostly higher against the Philippines,” he said in a Viber message.

“All of these tariffs are still subject to negotiations with the US if these rates would be lowered by the 1 August extended deadline, as Trump has signaled no further extension after this or more than a week from now,” he added.

According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, in May 2025, the US contributed the highest to the total export value, with exports to the superpower nation amounting to $1.115 billion, representing a share of 15.3 percent of the country’s total exports in May 2025.

Exports more expensive

Ricafort said that, other than electronics, all Philippine exports to the US would be subjected to a 19 percent tax, making exports more expensive by 19 percent, “which could be shouldered by the US buyer/consumer or exporter, depending on the arrangement and a function of competition.”

Asked for a ballpark figure on the incremental expenses of exporters, he said it is hard to tell exactly.

“Usually, the higher the price becomes for the export item, the lower the demand/sales become, thereby reducing earnings, some exporter jobs, and lower business/sales/profits and employment also by the suppliers/supply chains of the exporter,” he said.

Negative impact overall

But Ricafort maintained that what is certain right now is that the newly imposed tariff on US-bound Philippine products is seen to reduce global trade, investments, employment, and overall world gross domestic product (GDP) growth that, in turn, could indirectly slow down local GDP growth as well.

So far, the US import tariffs on the Philippines are among the lowest, based on the recent announcements by Trump; however, this was after the Philippines offered zero tariffs on US vehicle imports.

A 15 percent tariff was given to Japan (vs. the previous 25 percent), after Japan agreed to open the country to the US on trade including cars and trucks, rice and certain other agricultural products, and among others.

Indonesia, gets 19 percent against the previous 32 percent (after zero tariffs on US goods/imports); 20 percent on Vietnam (after zero tariffs on US goods/imports), but goods deemed to be transshipped through Vietnam (such as from China) will be imposed a 40 percent tariff; 25 percent on South Korea, Malaysia; 30 percent on China, 36 percent on Thailand and Cambodia, and 40 percent on Laos and Myanmar.

Lowered AMRO forecast

Meanwhile, due to the tariff uncertainties, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) hoisted a 3.8 percent growth forecast in 2025 and 3.6 percent in 2026, respectively, a tamer growth assessment from the previous 4.2 percent.

“Reflecting heightened global uncertainties, particularly the evolving US tariff measures, the growth forecasts represent a downward revision from AMRO’s April projections of 4.2 percent in 2025 and 4.1 percent in 2026, which did not include the impact of then newly announced US tariffs,” AMRO said in a statement on Wednesday.

“Encouragingly, the ASEAN+3 region enters this period of global trade turbulence from a position of relative strength and resilience," said AMRO Chief Economist Dong He.

"Most regional policymakers have acted early to cushion the impact of the trade shock, and policy space remains available for further support if needed,” he added.

AMRO said the economic outlook for ASEAN+3 remains clouded by significant uncertainties, with escalating US tariffs posing the most salient risk.