Metro Manila condo oversupply eases, but 82K units remain unsold

The residential condominium market in Metro Manila continues to face a high inventory overhang, though a recent report from Leechiu Property Consultants (LPC) shows a slight improvement in absorption.

As of the second quarter of 2025, it will take 37 months to clear the current supply of unsold condominium units – a marginal improvement from 38 months in the first quarter. A total of 82,800 units remain unsold across 638 actively selling projects, down slightly as developers report stronger buyer activity.

Metro Manila now has an estimated 764,100 condominium units, according to LPC, with 619,000 ready for occupancy and 145,000 at pre-selling stage. Quezon City remains the most overstocked area, accounting for 19,500 of the unsold units, followed by Ortigas (15,000), the Bay Area (13,800), and Manila City (11,400).

Despite the oversupply, developers appear optimistic. New project launches rose 31 percent quarter-on-quarter to 1,761 units, while quarterly take-up grew 2 percent to 6,642 units between April and June, marking the second straight quarter of improvement in sales.

Market segmentation data shows that the bulk of unsold inventory is priced for the upscale (P7 million-P12 million) and upper-middle (P4 million-P7 million) segments, which together make up nearly 70 percent of available units.

Meanwhile, only 1 percent of unsold stock targets the luxury bracket (above P68 million), and less than 1 percent is classified as affordable (under P600,000), highlighting a persistent mismatch between supply and demand.

In parallel with improved buyer interest, property values in exclusive residential areas have surged to record levels. Dasmariñas Village now commands up to P704,000 per square meter, followed by Forbes Park at P649,000, Green Meadows at P288,000, and Ayala Alabang at P237,000.

Outside the capital, prices have also appreciated in affluent enclaves south of Metro Manila. Ayala Southvale and Southlinks Estate are now fetching P126,000 and P157,000 per square meter, respectively, while rates in Cavite and Laguna average P68,000 and P57,000.

Industry analysts view the slight drop in oversupply as a sign of stabilizing demand, although concerns remain over the concentration of available inventory in higher price points and the sustainability of current price trends.