The drumbeat of Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) has grown undeniably louder, and with it, the clamor for a truly capable Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). The Horizons modernization program, conceived under the Aquino administration and continued, albeit unevenly, by Duterte, was supposed to be our blueprint for self-defense.

Now, halfway through the Marcos administration’s term, with the grandly titled “Re-Horizon 3” unveiled, one must ask: are we building on the foundations laid, or are we simply treading water, if not outright stalling, in the face of a rapidly modernizing regional behemoth?

Horizons 1 and 2, spanning 2013 to 2022, were designed to deliver a “minimum credible defense posture.” Under Aquino, we saw the arrival of the FA-50 light fighter jets — a welcome, if modest, aerial addition — along with C-295M transport aircraft and initial steps toward naval assets like the Hamilton-class cutters (though these were more hand-me-downs than brand-new acquisitions).

Duterte, despite his curious pivot towards Beijing, managed to deliver on the two Jose Rizal-class frigates, our first genuinely modern, missile-capable warships, alongside S-70i Black Hawk helicopters.

These were tangible gains, albeit insufficient against the sheer scale of China’s naval might. The ambition to acquire submarines, a persistent whisper throughout the program, never materialized in these phases.

Now, we have Re-Horizon 3, a supposed P2 trillion, decade-long expenditure under the Marcos administration, aiming for a “Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept.” Under it, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. paints a grand vision of multi-role fighters, offshore patrol vessels, missile corvettes, and, finally, the long-sought submarines.

We concede that the recent acquisition of BrahMos missiles and the arrival of the BRP Miguel Malvar corvette are indeed significant steps. Yet, there’s a nagging sense of déjà vu, a feeling we’re stuck in a perpetual cycle of planning big and delivering piecemeal.

The latest news — the reported push to acquire six retired Abukuma-class destroyer escorts from Japan, commissioned between 1989 and 1993 — raises eyebrows and hackles.

While Navy spokesperson Captain John Percie Alcos touts their “reliability and versatility,” and some analysts argue “one country’s junk could be another’s treasure,” we cannot help but wonder: is this modernization, or merely a stop-gap measure cloaked in diplomatic rhetoric?

The objective of modernization is to acquire next-generation equipment. Japanese ships, even if well-maintained, are probably relics of a bygone era. They may plug immediate capability gaps, as the “patchwork” narrative suggests, but can these 1990s-era vessels truly stand toe-to-toe with China’s ever-growing fleet of modern destroyers and frigates?

The stark imbalance, with China operating over 100 surface combatants to our paltry two modern frigates, makes this proposition feel less like a strategic leap and more like a desperate scramble.

While the Marcos administration is commendable for pushing the “Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept” and recognizing the need for external defense, the question of consistent and robust funding looms large.

Reports indicate a significant portion of the AFP’s modernization budget for 2025 is lodged in “unprogrammed appropriations,” meaning it’s dependent on excess government revenue. This is a precarious foundation for a program of such national urgency.

While Re-Horizon 3 sounds impressive on paper, its effectiveness will be judged not by pronouncements, but by the tangible delivery of modern, relevant assets.

Acquiring retired warships, while perhaps tactically expedient, does not embody the spirit of genuine modernization. If we are truly committed to defending our territory, we need more than hand-me-downs and aspirational shopping lists; we need a concrete, fully funded, and uncompromising path to a truly modern and capable military.

Otherwise, amid China’s relentless overreach, our modernization program risks becoming a mere footnote in the story of our territorial erosion.