The United States bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities is fueling fears of a sharper spike in global oil prices, as tensions in the Middle East threaten to choke key supply routes and unsettle already volatile energy markets.

Jetti Petroleum, Inc. President Leo Bellas warned that for import-reliant economies like the Philippines, the fallout could send pump prices up further as shipping costs rise amid the widening scope of the affected area. 

“World oil prices could rise further because of the new development. The potential increase in premium and freight, which are projected to rise because of the expanded scope of hostilities, could be factored in in the expected movement on domestic prices next week,” Bellas said on Sunday.

The United States, in full coordination with Israel, launched airstrikes on three nuclear sites in Iran, an operation President Donald Trump called “successful” and “obliterating,” though Iranian officials confirmed the strikes but downplayed the damage.

With trading markets already reacting to the heightened geopolitical risk, a new round of price hikes looms, compounding inflation concerns and threatening to derail energy cost forecasts for the year.

Based on Jetti’s monitoring, pump prices could rise sharply next week, with diesel increasing by P4.90 to P5.10 per liter and gasoline by P3.20 to P3.40 per liter.

Despite the potential spike, the Department of Energy’s Oil Management Bureau said Dubai crude remains below the $80-per-barrel trigger for government fuel subsidies.

For this year, the Department of Transportation has allocated P2.5 billion in fuel aid for public utility vehicle drivers, while the Department of Agriculture earmarked P585 million for farmers and fisherfolk.

Oil firms are required to keep a minimum 30-day inventory of crude and a 15-day supply of finished products.