Middle East jitters

Call it a gut reaction. But whenever there’s a spate of violence and mayhem in the Middle East as with the ongoing Israel-Iran war, our stomach gets queasy.

Not least because if the war threatens the safety and welfare of scores of Filipinos currently in the Middle East, it becomes a national concern affecting so many Filipino families.

And if the war escalates from raining bombs on each other’s capital to a wider Middle East conflagration, it would threaten the world’s oil supply and world trade and become a dicey national security concern.

First, however, some initial takes on last week’s earth-shaking and fast evolving firestorm.

After years of saying a nuclear-armed Iran was an existential threat to it, Israel mounted a brilliant, stealthy assault last Friday.

Using sophisticated intelligence, pre-positioned drones, then jet bombers, Israel struck at predawn and took out Iran’s military leadership, including five of its top nuclear scientists, as well as various nuclear facilities.

Shortly after, Iran retaliated by showering Israel’s capital, Tel Aviv, and elsewhere with ballistic missiles, with one salvo reportedly damaging the headquarters of Israel’s equivalent of the Pentagon.

A Filipino caregiver friend of mine witnessing the bombing of Tel Aviv’s neighborhoods said the explosions were “loud and scary.” Scores of civilian casualties, including Filipinos, have been reported.

But while many said Israel’s attacks were a tactical masterstroke, the emerging consensus among analysts is that Israel does not appear any closer to realizing its strategic goal of a denuclearized Iran.

In the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities, for instance, no damage was seen at the deeply-bunkered Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant or the Khondab heavy water reactor under construction, the UN nuclear watchdog said last Saturday. Israel apparently needs US help to successfully penetrate the Fordow.

The US, however, as of press time, has refused to be dragged into yet another conflict between the two bitter Middle East enemies. Israel in October last year traded blows with Iran and was said to have successfully disabled Iran’s air defenses.

At any rate, analysts say Israel’s latest attacks seem to be about using Iran’s burgeoning nuclear ambitions as a pretext to destabilize the Iranian regime.

Undermining the Ayatollahs’ stranglehold on Iran, however, will probably take some more doing since the knee-jerk reaction of most Iranians to the latest attacks will likely be to rally around the flag.

As such, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s gamble to strike at Iran risks an overreach, say experts, with Netanyahu likely settling for the mere neutering of the Iranian nuclear threat for at least a year or two.

He may also have prepared the groundwork for a wider Middle East conflagration.

What will unfold over the coming days, of course, remains largely unclear, with analysts saying the endgame will depend on Iran’s responses and whether the US will allow itself to be dragged more directly into the conflict.

With regard to Iran’s options, there’s now the risk Iran will decide to employ what analysts call its “Hail Mary” options.

Beyond attacking Israel directly, Iran can up the ante by striking at Saudi oil facilities, at the Gulf region’s critical infrastructure, and even at US bases in the region.

Any of these options will disrupt maritime shipping in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, where 30 percent of the world’s oil supplies pass. If that happens, it could trigger high oil prices and further affect the troubled global economy.

In short, whatever happens at this critical juncture in the Middle East will certainly affect us. Surely we must keep a close watch and prepare for any eventuality.