There is zero chance for former President Rodrigo Duterte to return to the Philippines — even just to take his oath of office as Davao City mayor — if the International Criminal Court (ICC) grants him temporary release while his case is pending, a lawyer representing drug war victims said Tuesday.

Joel Butuyan, president of the Center for International Law and legal counsel to some of Duterte’s drug war victims, explained that the former president would violate ICC conditions if he attempted to resume public functions or return home.

“He will never be able to return to the Philippines because the country that must host him during his interim release must be a member of the ICC. So it’s really impossible for him to be sent back to the country,” Butuyan said.

The ICC allows for interim release pending trial, but only under strict conditions — among them that the detainee is not a flight risk, will not obstruct investigations, and is unlikely to reoffend.

In his petition to the ICC, Duterte’s lawyer Nicholas Kaufman argued that his client meets all conditions and pledged that Duterte would refrain from public engagements, holding office, or communicating with anyone outside his family.

Because of these undertakings, Butuyan said Duterte’s potential oath-taking as mayor is "nearly impossible."

“He really cannot assume office and perform his duties as mayor because it would be a direct violation of the undertakings made to secure his release,” Butuyan averred.

Duterte is currently detained at Scheveningen Prison in The Hague, Netherlands, over a single count of crimes against humanity tied to 43 extrajudicial killings committed between November 1, 2011 and March 16, 2019 — during his tenure as both Davao City mayor and President of the Philippines.

Despite his detention, Duterte won a landslide victory in the 12 May elections, securing 662,630 votes as Davao City mayor, defeating his former Cabinet secretary Karlo Nograles, who received just 80,852 votes.

Under Section 11 of the Omnibus Election Code, Duterte must take his oath of office within six months of proclamation. Failure to do so — unless due to reasons beyond his control — will result in a vacancy in the office.

In such a case, incumbent Mayor Sebastian Duterte, his youngest son and running mate, will assume the post.

Since the Philippines withdrew from the Rome Statute in March 2019, it can no longer host an ICC detainee like Duterte. Instead, any ICC member state may act as host.

Butuyan said the hosting country would likely be near The Hague, ensuring Duterte’s availability for court appearances. Kaufman has told the court that an unnamed country has already agreed to host Duterte if he is granted interim release.

Butuyan emphasized that such a release would be "unprecedented," noting that the ICC typically grants interim release only during appeals after acquittals or dismissals.

Duterte was arrested on 11 March in Manila and has remained in ICC custody since. His confirmation of charges hearing is scheduled for 23 September.