The current dispensation under US President Donald Trump is deemed, as reflected in the view of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative institution that heavily supports the Republican perspective.

A recently published report warned that several allies of former President Rodrigo Duterte, “whose administration leaned toward China to strengthen ties,” secured key seats in the upper chamber of Congress.

The article listed Dan Green, a research fellow at the Allison Center for National Security, and Parker Goodrich, a Summer 2025 Member of the Young Leaders Program, as authors.

It presented a scenario where Duterte’s allies gain more influence in Congress and Vice President Sara Duterte survives the impeachment trial, and “the Philippines could once again start to shift its foreign policy towards China.”

It said that the Philippines is a critical ally in the Indo-Pacific strategy, and “another Duterte family presidency could jeopardize military agreements.”

The recent Senate election in the Philippines delivered an unexpected result, sparking concerns among those closely following the country’s politics, the report said.

It reflected on how President Marcos was credited with steering the Philippines back toward a stronger security partnership with the United States since 2022. Still, the resurgence of Duterte’s political bloc “signals potential turbulence ahead.”

Vice President Sara Duterte, the daughter of the former president, is facing an impeachment trial in the Senate, scheduled for July. If convicted, she would be removed from office and permanently barred from running for a future post, including the 2028 presidential election.

With five of the 12 newly elected senators being allies of the Vice President, the Senate election results were acknowledged as having given her a boost.

The report made special mention of Imee Marcos, the sister of President Marcos, as being on the side of the Vice President, who needs at least nine senators to vote for her acquittal to remain in office.

The Philippines could once again start to shift its foreign policy back towards China, reducing US leverage in the region and complicating Indo-Pacific security efforts if the fates favor Duterte.

Beijing has historically leveraged political divisions in other countries to expand its influence, particularly through economic investments and infrastructure projects.

A VP Sara victory in the 2028 presidential race would complicate Philippine relations with the United States.

The Senate election results have given Duterte a boost which, if projected to the 2028 voting, will see China looking to strengthen its foothold in the country, potentially undermining US objectives.

The report said that during former President Duterte’s term in office, territorial disputes in the South China Sea were downplayed, as Duterte opted for economic cooperation with Beijing rather than enforcing the 2016 international tribunal ruling that invalidated China’s expansive maritime claims.

“Economic dependence on China also deepened as Duterte secured billions in investment pledges, including infrastructure projects under Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, many of these projects failed to materialize, leaving the Philippines economically vulnerable while China continued its military expansion in contested waters,” the report said.

President Duterte’s approach was assessed as having weakened Manila’s alignment with the US, “creating uncertainty about the Mutual Defense Treaty and joint military operations,” the report held.

If Sara Duterte survives the Senate proceedings and consolidates power, the Duterte dynasty could stage a comeback, setting the stage for a 2028 presidential bid that might shift Manila’s foreign policy back toward Beijing.

It urged caution for policymakers in Washington as the 2028 election approaches, advising them to pay attention to the shifting political tides.

If the Dutertes return to power, the balance in the South China Sea could tilt in Beijing’s favor, the report warned.