Broken alliances, new battles ahead

The first Monday of May caught everyone off guard when President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. made a surprise appearance at a One Cebu rally in Cebu province to drum up support for administration-backed candidates under the Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas.

It was just a week before election day, and politicians were pulling out all the stops to win over voters. After all, as former Comelec Commissioner Rowena Guanzon once said, “Elections are about securing as many votes as you can — not about political alliances or loyalties. That comes after the counting’s done.”

In his speech, Marcos stressed how important these midterms were. He didn’t exactly say why, but hinted that they were just as critical as a presidential election.

And for political observers, that wasn’t lost on them. The 2025 midterms were shaping up to be a preview of the 2028 presidential race.

Back in 2022, the Marcos-Duterte tandem scored a landslide win, with many already predicting a second Duterte presidency in the near future, banking on the enduring popularity of the patriarch, former president Rodrigo Duterte. Even with Marcos at the helm, the Duterte brand was still politically powerful.

But midway in the Marcos administration, the once-solid alliance between two of the country’s biggest political forces shattered. Supporters were split, frustrated, and frankly heartbroken by the very public “political breakup” of President Marcos and Vice President Duterte.

That rift set the tone for the 2025 midterms. Marcos had his own lineup. Duterte stuck with her father’s party, PDP Laban. Some candidates overlapped — like Camille Villar, who got the nod of both sides — setting the stage for awkward alliances. Eventually, Villar aligned more with Alyansa, with Duterte’s endorsement coming later.

Despite favorable pre-election surveys, the results delivered a gut punch to the ruling coalition — and a win for regular Filipinos tired of the usual politics.

Surprisingly, two familiar names — former senators Kiko Pangilinan and Bam Aquino — made their way back into the Magic 12, running as independents but still carrying their Liberal Party roots. They weren’t alone. In the House, Akbayan Partylist (with Chel Diokno) and ML Partylist (led by Leila de Lima) also secured seats, signaling what looked like the beginnings of a Liberal resurgence after nearly a decade in the shadows.

While Leni Robredo fought hard in 2022, it turned out the real fight was brewing within the UniTeam itself.

By 2025, a new generation of voters, many too young to vote in 2022, finally had their say. They showed up — and they voted for leaders who aligned with their values and vision for the country.

For Marcos, it was a bitter pill: only six of the 11 candidates in his camp won Senate seats, far from the landslide they had hoped for.

The Duterte camp didn’t fare much better, though loyalists Senators Bong Go and Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa comfortably held on to their seats.

When the dust settled, the Senate looked like one of the most ideologically diverse in recent memory: three favored by the youth, a majority backed by centrist Filipinos, and the rest loyal to old political circles.

But beneath the surface, one issue drove much of the tension: the impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte.

Pro-Marcos groups backed her removal. The pro-Duterte movement? They dug in to defend her — especially after former President Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest and transfer to The Hague, a move that only deepened the divide.

Since the split, Duterte’s supporters have cast themselves as the real opposition — not the Liberal Party, not Risa Hontiveros, not Kiko and Bam. And it worked. They captured the public’s attention while traditional opposition figures worked quietly on the sidelines, slowly regaining ground.

It wasn’t an easy choice for the voters: to back Marcos’ candidates, support Duterte’s camp, or take a chance on the Liberals making a comeback?

After the midterm upset, Marcos played one last card: unity. He invited newly elected officials into the fold, echoing a familiar call that public service should be about the people — not political egos.

He also appealed for calm, urging everyone to focus on national issues, not party drama.