What happened to the Alyansa’s Senate slate was the result of inexperience, complacency, and flawed strategies that relied heavily on the foolish belief that having the administration’s resources at their disposal and the endorsement of the President were enough to sweep them into office.

Alyansa’s poor showing despite the billions in “ayuda” it showered on the masses is telling. At this point, their dole-outs have ripened into entitlements. And, whether they admit it or not, the administration offered nothing new, not even a shared aspiration to rally behind other than the idea of a Bagong Pilipinas that really had nothing substantial to show for it despite their three years in power.

Meanwhile, the opposition found a shared cause and rallying point in FPRRD’s arrest. VP Sara’s political survival became an imperative if the people were to harbor any hope of bringing the old man Duterte back home to the Philippines.

Charged with shifting the blame for the disappointing Senate race to Congress’ impeachment of VP Sara Duterte, Toby Tiangco made a deliberate and seemingly rehearsed effort to downplay the impact of the arrest and rendition of FPRRD to The Hague on the plummeting ratings of the administration.

But many hadn’t forgotten DILG Secretary Jonvic Remulla’s “unintentional” disclosure to the public of the persons directly involved in the planning of the rendition of the former president. Because of SILG Remulla, the carefully crafted narrative designed to shield PBBM from complicity in FPRRD’s arrest was rendered inutile.

From thereon, no amount of denial and invocation of binding treaty obligations could put out the fire that severely damaged the President’s credibility, causing the drastic decline in his approval and trust ratings.

Then there was the confusing messaging. I refer to Alyansa’s stubborn insistence on keeping Manang Imee in the slate despite her public denouncement of the administration’s attack against the Dutertes, along with Camille Villar’s inclusion despite her family’s pro-Duterte stance after the ICC arrest and even after the release of the campaign ad with VP Sara.

There was also the dissipation of solid Alyansa support after rumors surfaced of an unofficial alliance struck with the coalition of figures from or previously with the Liberal Party to make up for Imee Marcos and Villar moving to Sara Duterte’s camp.

Putting Aquino and Pangilinan out there as options in the hope of boxing out opposition candidates within winning range backfired. The result? Three almost sure winners from the Alyansa slate: Ben Tulfo, Revilla, and Binay fell out of the magic 12.

As far as the rest of the country was concerned, the point of no return that weakened the endorsing power of PBBM was the arrest and rendition of FPRRD to the ICC in The Hague, not the impeachment of VP Sara Duterte.

Thanks to the administration’s miscalculation, shipping off the most popular and beloved president in recent history to The Hague resuscitated VP Sara’s flatlining political capital in the wake of her impeachment. With the consolidated opposition fully behind her as the natural successor to FPRRD, the political momentum shifted in VP Sara’s favor going into the crucial last stretch of the campaign.