Fuzzy PNP maths

The public is not easily misled about crime, even when bombarded with manipulated statistics.

The National Capital Region Police Office (NCRPO) recently reported that the crime rate in Metro Manila dropped by 23.13 percent in half a year, from November 2024 to last May, which many found incredulous.

NCRPO officials should get down from their ivory towers and talk to families who now mostly lock themselves up, particularly at night, for fear of being victimized by thugs.

The streets are again dominated by the dregs of society and other underworld characters who hibernated in the previous dispensation.

NCRPO Director Maj. Gen. Anthony Aberin claimed through his questionable statistics that there were 779 fewer incidents of murder, homicide, physical injuries, rape, robbery, theft and carnapping during the stated period.

The statistics can be real only through underreporting, mainly due to public mistrust that bringing a complaint to the police will get results.

Crime rates are based on incidents reported to the police, but those in marginalized communities, where street violence is frequent and a distrust of law enforcement pervades due to fear of reprisal or perceived inefficacy, rarely make complaints.

Underreporting can artificially lower crime statistics, while reported incidents fuel the view of rising crime, further widening the perception gap.

In the prime financial district of Makati, in Barangay Palanan, holdups and snatchings occur almost daily.

For instance, a Daily Tribune staff member was stripped of his mobile phone while waiting for a Grab ride.

Previously, the NCRPO was informed of a holdup near the newspaper’s office, and its officials who visited the office promised action.

For about two days, mobile patrols were seen on nearby streets, which provided fleeting peace of mind as the hoodlums on board motorcycles obviously avoided the area.

It didn’t last long as the crooks were again ruling the streets of that part of Makati.

It would be easy to assume that in less prominent areas of the metro, the same sentiment, or worse, is evident where the narrative of a falling crime rate clashes with the public perception.

Reports can also be manipulated. Enforcement agencies might downplay or reclassify incidents to improve statistics.

For instance, a robbery, if it’s deemed minor or unresolved, could be logged as theft or not recorded at all.

Index crimes such as murder, rape and theft, which the PNP tracks closely, might be selectively logged to show progress, while non-index crimes such as minor disputes and vandalism are ignored.

The urgency to showcase stability and competence might pressure the PNP to present favorable data, even encouraging underreporting to align with political goals.

According to the Numbeo Crime Index for 2025, the Philippines has a moderately high crime index of approximately 40 to 45 on a scale of 100, putting the country in the middle range globally.

It is ranked below countries with extreme crime rates like Venezuela (80.7), Papua New Guinea (80.3), and South Africa (74.7), but above safer nations like Switzerland, Denmark, and Japan, which have crime indices below 20.

More recently, the US Department of State issued a Level 2 travel advisory for the Philippines, urging increased caution due to crime, terrorism and civil unrest.

The report cited urban centers like the National Capital Region as being noted for pickpocketing, robbery, and violent crime, with specific concerns about unregistered firearms and gang activity.

Taking a line from the late US President Abraham Lincoln, the PNP figures can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but it cannot fool all of the people all of the time.