India’s plans to significantly expand its coal-based steel and iron production could undermine global efforts to reduce carbon emissions from the sector, which is one of the largest industrial contributors to climate change, a report said Tuesday.

The iron and steel industry accounts for about 11 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions. India, the world’s second-largest steel producer, aims to double its steel production capacity by 2030 — a move that could push emission levels higher unless more sustainable methods are adopted.

The report, published by the Global Energy Monitor (GEM), notes that shifting from traditional coal-dependent blast furnaces to electric arc furnaces (EAFs) is one of the most viable ways to reduce emissions in the sector. EAFs, which melt scrap steel without using coal, are significantly cleaner — even when powered by coal-based electricity grids.

EAF production is expected to make up 36 percent of global steel manufacturing by 2030. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said that figure needs to reach at least 37 percent by the end of the decade to align with the net-zero emissions pathway for 2050.

"The only realistic way to meet that 37 percent goal is with a change of plans from India," said Astrid Grigsby-Schulte of GEM. That seemingly minor one-percent gap “represents tens of millions of tonnes of CO2 generation,” she told AFP.

Grigsby-Schulte emphasized that hitting the 2030 target is “critical, not only because of emissions immediately avoided, but also because it means we are laying the necessary groundwork for broader decarbonisation by 2050.”

India has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2070, two decades later than the global 2050 target. Unlike China, whose steel output has plateaued, India is pushing for significant capacity growth — most of it reliant on emissions-intensive blast furnace technology.

GEM also highlighted that despite India's ambitious announcements, implementation has lagged. Since its 2017 National Steel Policy was introduced, only 12 percent of the proposed new capacity has been realized, compared to 80 percent in China.

That indicates India’s “ambitious growth plans are more talk than action thus far,” GEM said, noting that much of the still-unbuilt capacity “could still shift to lower-emissions technologies,” according to Grigsby-Schulte.

Global steel demand is projected to rise, and the IEA has warned that the iron and steel industry may be among the last to phase out coal use. The sector needs to “accelerate significantly” to meet 2050 targets, the agency said, including adoption of innovative but still-developing production methods.