Poles headed to the polls Sunday in a closely watched presidential election that could reshape the country’s centrist government and determine the future of abortion rights and LGBTQ protections.

Opinion surveys show pro-European Union Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski leading with around 30% support, followed by nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki at 25%. Both are expected to advance to a runoff vote set for June 1.

The election takes place during a tense period in Europe, with Russia’s war in Ukraine ongoing, far-right movements gaining traction, and transatlantic relations under pressure.

Polling stations opened at 7 a.m. local time (0500 GMT) and are set to close at 9 p.m., when exit polls are expected. Thirteen candidates are running, but official results are not likely until Monday.

The outcome could mark a shift in Polish politics, where President Andrzej Duda, backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, has frequently vetoed legislation proposed by the centrist government led by former European Council President Donald Tusk, who came to power in 2023.

"I hope that these elections will complete the change," said Hubert Michalowski, a 50-year-old self-employed voter. Michalowski said he opposes a rightward turn for the country and prefers Poland to “stay in the centre and reverse this trend in Europe as well.”

Foreign policy and social issues

The campaign has highlighted a stark divide over foreign policy and Poland’s relationship with the EU and the United States. Social issues such as reproductive rights and protections for LGBTQ individuals have also played a prominent role.

Trzaskowski, 53, has pledged to support liberal reforms, including expanded abortion access and LGBTQ rights.

"Above all, I hope for the liberalisation of the law on abortion and sexual minorities," said Malgorzata Mikoszewska, 41, who works in the tourism sector.

PiS, now in opposition after losing power in 2023, has backed Nawrocki. The party clashed frequently with EU institutions during its time in power over rule-of-law concerns.

Nawrocki, 42, has aligned himself with former U.S. President Donald Trump. He claimed that Trump told him, “You will win,” during a recent meeting at the White House.

The deciding factor in the election could be whether supporters of far-right candidate Slawomir Mentzen, who is polling at around 12%, shift their votes to Nawrocki in a second round. Mentzen has taken a hardline stance against abortion and immigration and is critical of the EU.

He has also accused Ukrainian refugees in Poland of exploiting the country’s resources. His rhetoric has resonated with voters like Radoslaw Wiecek, a 25-year-old self-employed worker.

"I don't want Poland to be totally subject to the EU," Wiecek said, adding that he wanted “a fresh wind” to disrupt the dominance of the two major political parties — Law and Justice and the Civic Coalition, which supports Trzaskowski.

For Anna Urbanska, a 74-year-old pensioner, immigration is a decisive issue.

"I don't want these immigrants to be allowed in here, in Poland. I want us to be able to live more peacefully," she said.

Power struggles and policy gridlock

Tusk’s government has faced obstacles in implementing key policies, including efforts to relax Poland’s strict abortion laws, due to President Duda’s use of veto power.

The Polish president plays a significant role in shaping foreign policy, commanding the military, and approving or rejecting legislation.

"With Nawrocki as president, the government would be paralysed, and that could eventually lead to the fall of the ruling coalition," said political scientist Anna Materska-Sosnowska.

She warned that a victory for Nawrocki could pave the way for “the return of the populists with renewed force” in the next general election.

Materska-Sosnowska also underscored the broader implications for Europe, saying the election could be crucial in efforts to curb the spread of anti-democratic populism across the continent.

Under Tusk’s leadership, Poland has sought a more prominent role in Europe, especially as a key NATO ally on the eastern flank amid continued Russian aggression.