Inescapable futility

After the smoke clears from the midterm polls, the nation’s attention will turn to the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, where political sparks are expected.

VP Duterte, impeached by the House of Representatives last February for alleged crimes, including corruption and threatening to assassinate President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., faces a trial tentatively set for July.

A conviction will require a two-thirds majority, or 16 of 24 senators, to remove her and permanently bar her from public office, potentially derailing her 2028 presidential ambition.

Conversely, an acquittal would require at least nine senators voting in her favor.

“It will be all about the evidence. Being one of the judges, that is what is required in the process,” said Senator Christopher “Bong” Go, who topped the senatorial race.

The yellow infusion of Mamamayang Liberal Rep. Leila de Lima and Akbayan Rep. Chel Diokno into the prosecution panel offers a more interesting quality to the House contingent who will have to prove the complaints against VP Duterte.

In the end, however, the court, as described in past impeachment trials, is political in nature and will depend on the persuasion of the senator judges.

Thus far, the Senate tally with 98 percent of the votes counted tilts the scales in favor of an acquittal.

The administration’s failure to secure a dominant Senate majority, and the emergence of independent opposition senators, make for a complex political landscape ahead of the trial.

Strong public support for VP Duterte will also make conviction unlikely, favorably positioning Sara for 2028.

The trial’s outcome will also depend on the twists and turns in the proceedings, the evidence, and last-minute political alignments, which remain uncertain but are processes that led to the conviction of former Chief Justice Renato Corona.

Alliances will be pivotal, as half of the judges have a fresh mandate and will likely shun being branded as being in one camp or the other.

Veteran legislators Ping Lacson and Tito Sotto, for instance, are not considered Marcos loyalists, and both may vote either way. Rodante Marcoleta, a lawyer, is known as an ally of the Vice President, and so is Imee Marcos who, despite being the sister of the President, cannot be considered aligned with him.

A political analyst said it will be tough to clinch the necessary votes to convict VP Duterte with the Senate’s current makeup, including the new entrants.

The unknowns, however, may prove crucial as efforts are ongoing to have Go, the topnotcher, and Ronald “Bato” de la Rosa, third in the tally thus far with 20.2 million votes, served International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrants.

Such a development, however, is expected to galvanize public opinion further against the administration, which would be a strong factor in the votes of the senator-judges.

Two opposition candidates, Bam Aquino, second with 20.6 million votes, and Kiko Pangilinan, fifth with 15.08 million votes, have promised fairness in the impeachment trial.

Of the 12 incumbent senators, only two have publicly opposed convicting VP Duterte, while the other 10 remain undecided or silent following Senate President Francis Escudero’s call to avoid prejudging the trial.

With seven senators — four new and three incumbent — identified as likely for acquittal, VP Duterte needs just two more votes to get the nine required.

Some are calling for an immediate resolution of the impeachment complaints to prevent a prolonged drama as seen during the Corona trial.

Given the political nature of the upcoming proceedings, senator-judges would likely avoid being blamed for undermining a potentially strong candidate in the next presidential election.