Magic 12 result dims Sara ouster

Vice President Sara Duterte may yet be the biggest winner to emerge from Monday’s midterm elections, with the fresh set of senators expected to take oath on 30 June amid her looming impeachment trial.

Based on the partial and official tally from the Commission on Elections before midnight, Senator Christopher “Bong” Go positioned himself to secure another six-year term — and as the top vote-getter, no less. Go’s performance affirmed survey results, but from out of the blue came yellow, mocking the very same pre-election forecasts, as former senator Bam Aquino emerged a strong second. (See related story.)

Go and Aquino were followed by Senator Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa, ACT-CIS Partylist Rep. Erwin Tulfo, and former senator Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan, a staunch ally of the two Aquino administrations.

Also crashing the so-called Magic 12 were former senators Panfilo “Ping” Lacson and Vicente “Tito” Sotto III, SAGIP Partylist Representative Rodante Marcoleta, Senator Pia Cayetano, and Las Piñas Representative Camille Villar.

Reelectionist Senators Imee Marcos and Lito Lapid also secured spots in the top 12, with a margin of less than half a million votes over veteran broadcaster Ben Tulfo, reelectionist Senator Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr., Makati City Mayor Abby Binay, and former Interior and Local Government Secretary Benhur Abalos.

If the current Magic 12 standings are maintained until the Commission on Elections officially proclaims the winners, Duterte’s conviction could become unlikely.

Nonetheless, politics in the Philippines being as it is, maneuverings from both the administration and the Duterte camp — buoyed also by the landslide win as Davao City mayor of detained former president Rodrigo Duterte — are expected in the coming weeks or months.

While Vice President Duterte profusely thanked voters who backed her and her father’s candidates, she said the “outcome was not what we had hoped for.”

“I acknowledge the results of the election and express my deep gratitude to all the supporters who stood with us throughout this journey. We will continue to hold the government accountable, advocate for the issues that matter, and work tirelessly to serve as a strong and constructive opposition,” Duterte said.

“This is not the end—it’s a renewed beginning. We invite all citizens—regardless of background or past affiliation—to join us in building a powerful and principled opposition,” she added.

Do the maths

For Duterte to be convicted, the Senate, which will act as the impeachment court, must reach a two-thirds majority, or at least 16 out of the 24 senators.

Go, Dela Rosa, and Marcoleta all ran under the Partido ng Demokratiko Pilipino–Lakas ng Bayan (PDP–Laban), chaired by former president Rodrigo Duterte.

All three have publicly declared their support for the Vice President and have vowed to protect her should they secure Senate seats.

Marcos and Villar, on the other hand, were publicly endorsed by the Vice President herself. Just a day before the eve of the 12 May polls, PDP–Laban formally adopted them as guest candidates in its senatorial lineup.

The former ruling party admitted that Marcos and Villar’s last-minute addition to their senatorial slate was for a practical reason—to “protect” Duterte from her impending impeachment in the Senate.

With Go, Dela Rosa, Marcoleta, Marcos, and Villar expected to vote for acquittal, they would need only four more senators to block a conviction, which they could get from the non-reelectionist senators.

Of the 12 non-reelectionist senators, Senator Robin Padilla is expected to vote against Duterte’s conviction. He personally accompanied her during a visit to her detained father, former president Rodrigo Duterte, in The Hague, Netherlands.

Senator Mark Villar may also vote against Duterte’s conviction, especially after the Marcos administration ordered an investigation into PrimeWater, a water utility firm owned by their family.

The Cayetano siblings may play a pivotal role. Senator Alan Peter Cayetano is a known ally of former president Duterte, having served as his Foreign Affairs Secretary.

Though Senator Pia Cayetano ran under the administration-backed Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas, she may follow her brother’s lead, as she has done during previous key Senate votes.

To recall, both Cayetanos abstained from voting on the controversial Maharlika Investment Fund bill. Explaining her abstention, Senator Pia said her brother did not tell her how to vote on the motion.

Divisive

Previous interviews with other non-reelectionist senators would also give a clue as to how they will decide on the impeachment of the Vice President.

Senate President Pro Tempore Jinggoy Estrada previously hinted at a possible “no” vote against the impeachment of Duterte.

Estrada noted that “impeachment will only sow divisiveness and distract us from the urgent issues we must collectively address.”

His half-brother, Senator JV Ejercito, echoed the same position, stressing that the impeachment move against the Vice President is “very divisive.”

“For me, personally, it’s very divisive because we know that impeachment is more political than legal,” Ejercito said in a chance interview in December.

“It’s hard to move forward if the top two officials are bickering because it does not give a good signal, especially in the international community, making it appear that there’s political instability in the country. We are already having a hard time inviting investors, and then there’s this political instability,” he added.

The two senators made the remarks at a time when President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Duterte, his former running mate, engaged in a word war in November.

If all 11 identified senators vote against conviction, that would be more than enough to block Duterte’s removal from office.

Duterte was impeached by the House of Representatives on 5 February, with a total of 215 lawmakers — or more than two-thirds of the members — supporting the motion.

Her conviction, which would remove her from office and bar her from holding future public positions, is currently pending in the Senate.

Senate President Francis “Chiz” Escudero announced earlier that the upper chamber would convene the impeachment court on 30 July despite clamor to act on the impeachment complaints.