As cardinals gather at the Vatican to elect a new pope — with a Filipino among the frontrunners — the Catholic Church in Asia’s most devout country is grappling with a troubling decline in priestly vocations.

“According to the statistics we have, one priest caters to around 9,000 Catholics,” said John Alfred Rabena, chancellor of the UST Central Seminary, one of the oldest in the Philippines.

Speaking this week, Rabena warned the situation is pushing the clergy to exhaustion.

The gathering at the Vatican has sparked renewed interest back home, with Philippine Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle seen as a top contender to succeed Pope Francis, and Cardinal Pablo Virgilio David emerging as a surprise late favorite.

While church officials are officially barred from campaigning, local clergymen believe the election of a Filipino pope could inspire a much-needed surge in priestly vocations.

Father Robert Reyes, the well-known activist priest, said he had raised this concern when he was national vocation director of the Catholic Bishops’ Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) from 1987 to 1998.

“I was already warning the bishops that there were clear signs of declining vocations — and how many years ago was that?” Reyes said.

Although the CBCP keeps no formal database on enrolment, the Philippine Church last November launched its first-ever National Vocation Awareness Month to “address the critical need for more priests within the nation.”

Broken trust

Father Jerome Secillano, spokesperson for the CBCP, pointed to the global sexual abuse scandals that rocked the Church in the early 2000s as a major factor for the decline.

“Because of the sexual misconduct that happened in the Church, the number of people entering the seminary started to dwindle. The impact of that is still being felt,” he said.

While Secillano believes a Filipino pope would spark national pride, he’s cautious about expecting an instant revival of trust.

“I don’t know if a Filipino pope will immediately restore that broken trust,” he said.

Others noted that broader cultural changes have also contributed to the decline.

“Young people today are so exposed to the secular world —travel, the internet, social media,” Reyes said. “It’s not just about the scandals.”

Speaking Filipino

For seminarians like 27-year-old Neil Peña, the prospect of a Filipino pope is a powerful motivator.

“It’s different when the pope speaks your language,” Peña said. “A pope speaking plain Filipino, talking to you like he’s addressing you personally... it will be inspiring.”