As cardinals gather in Vatican City this week to elect a new pope, the Catholic Church finds itself at a crossroads—torn between those who wish to preserve its traditions and others who want to continue the reforms started under Pope Francis.

In an in-depth report by The New York Times, journalist Motoko Rich outlines how the conclave has become a reflection of broader global debates: Who gets to shape the Church’s future, and what kind of institution should it be in the 21st century?

Beyond left vs. right

Though the divisions within the Church may appear similar to secular political polarization, the ideological lines are more nuanced. Pope Francis, often praised by liberals worldwide, was not easily categorized. His defense of migrants and the poor reflected long-standing Church priorities, not modern political positioning.

What set Francis apart was his commitment to inclusivity. He opened church discussions—known as synods—to women, laypeople, and LGBTQ Catholics, encouraging open debate even on traditionally sensitive issues. His successor will face the challenge of either continuing this “big-tent” vision or pulling back toward doctrinal orthodoxy.

Who gets a say?

One of the most pressing questions among the cardinal-electors is whether to expand decision-making beyond clergy. Pope Francis argued that everyday Catholics—especially women and LGBTQ members—deserve a voice in shaping church direction. Conservatives, however, are expected to push for a return to a more centralized hierarchy.

Miriam Duignan of the Wijngaards Institute noted that the question may not be whether to include lay voices, but whether the Church can afford not to.

Hot-button issues

The cardinals must also reckon with a number of unresolved matters:

• Women in the church: Francis allowed women to vote at a bishops’ meeting, but stopped short of allowing them to become deacons. While conservative leaders warn this could open the door to female priests—breaking centuries of tradition—activists continue to press the issue.

• LGBTQ Catholics: In 2023, Francis permitted priests to bless same-sex couples, a move welcomed by progressives but sharply criticized in parts of Africa and North America. The new pope will need to navigate both doctrinal boundaries and cultural backlash.

• Married priests: Faced with a global priest shortage, especially in regions like the Amazon, Francis had considered allowing married men to serve. Ultimately, he chose not to lift the Church’s long-standing rule on clerical celibacy, leaving the door open for future reconsideration.

• Divorced and remarried Catholics: Francis encouraged compassion and inclusion, allowing priests to offer communion in some cases without annulment—but he avoided changing official doctrine.

• Sexual abuse crisis: While some church leaders wish to move past the scandal, survivors and experts insist the crisis is far from over. A Vatican statement called it a “wound” that must remain open to ensure lasting accountability and healing.

Looking to the Global South

The fastest-growing Catholic populations are in Africa and Asia, and there’s growing speculation that the next pope could come from one of these regions. The future pontiff will not only have to bridge cultural differences but also speak to long-standing global inequalities, as noted by Ghanaian theologian Nora Kofognotera Nonterah.

She emphasized that the next pope must confront injustice between the global North and South—particularly among younger Catholics who demand inclusion and engagement rather than top-down directives.

A legacy in the balance

Ultimately, the choice of the next pope will be a referendum on Francis’ legacy. Will the Church continue down a path of cautious reform and broader dialogue—or retreat into a more rigid form of authority?

As Professor Anna Rowlands of Durham University put it, Francis understood that disagreement could lead to dialogue. But with deep divides among the cardinal-electors, the conclave’s outcome may well determine whether that dialogue continues—or is shut down.