Presidential runway

Considering that Vice President Sara’s trust and approval ratings remain relatively high compared to those of other key national government officials, it is clear that she is a frontrunner in 2028, barring unforeseen events or shifts in public sentiment and preference.

This is why the result of the senatorial midterm elections is of special, if not utmost, concern to those planning to run for president. Should the senators elected predominantly come from the administration, they could pursue impeachment proceedings against her, potentially disqualifying her from ever running for public office again. This means that even if she wanted to, she could no longer seek the highest position in the land, as she would be permanently barred from running for any post.

Since the effort to proceed with the trial prior to the 12 May elections failed, ensuring a Senate that is unsympathetic to the Vice President’s interests could spell the difference between success and failure for those who want to become the next Chief Executive. Obviously, this includes Speaker Romualdez, who is allegedly moving heaven and earth to make it happen.

Note that if he truly wants to hold Sara criminally liable for the reported misuse of public funds, he and his allies in the House of Representatives could have filed criminal charges against her from the start. However, this would have been pointless, as it would take time to convict her, and it is extremely difficult to do so given the quantum of evidence required to prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. Had they pursued this route, she could still run in 2028.

Impeachment, on the other hand, is a political exercise and a numbers game. The admissibility of evidence and its probative value depend on the discretion of the impeachment court. In 2013, the Senate voted to convict Chief Justice Corona. Yet, several years later, he was posthumously exonerated of the charges. So, if they want to securely remove Sara, impeachment is the way to go.

If you notice, the Vice President appears active in this midterm election, even endorsing certain candidates. This is understandable because, aside from Senators Bong Go and Dela Rosa, none from her slate are expected to win, despite the public sympathy generated by the untimely arrest of former President Duterte. By getting certain senators elected, she could muster enough support to thwart an impending trial.

On the other hand, those against her are doing everything they can to eliminate her chances. Right now, she is the biggest threat. Given her popularity, they must act now, even at these early stages, because if they don’t, it might be too late.

In 2016, the Liberal Party, which controlled Congress and the administration, wasted no time attacking then-Vice President Binay when he appeared to be an early front-runner in the presidential race. They subjected him to several congressional inquiries and even filed criminal cases against him. His ranking subsequently dropped. Then, they shifted their focus to Senator Grace Poe when she seemed poised to win. Unfortunately, by the time they turned their focus to Duterte, it was already a foregone conclusion.

This is not to say that removing Sara from the picture would guarantee the Speaker’s chances as the administration’s standard-bearer. But by eliminating an obvious threat, he could at least find some relief and focus on more important issues, such as making himself marketable.

Considering that our political landscape is unstable and politicians frequently shift their allegiances, perpetually disqualifying Sara is the best alternative to removing her from the picture. Whether we like it or not, she and her father still command and enjoy massive public support, particularly in the South.

Other than Sara, there is no candidate who can capture the same public imagination, at least for now. Therefore, it could be an opportunity for Romualdez to work his way to the top if he can eliminate her. But assuming he does, I sincerely doubt he will ever be fully accepted by the public. His path and trajectory remind me of Mar Roxas.

But who knows? In this country, anything can happen, and nothing is surprising. If you tell me he can turn water into wine, he probably could — or so it seems.